An insider wallet suspected to be linked to the US-Iran conflict invested $3,000 to predict that the Iranian regime will fall before March 31.

3 Smart Money Accounts on Polymarket Invested $9,400 Betting on New Country Attack Iran Before April

On March 19, 3 accounts on Polymarket invested $9,400 betting on "whether there will be a new national attack on Iran before April," with the current probability at 24%. Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister and the UK government have responded to this, condemning Iran's attacks on Gulf states.

Quant Funds Flood Prediction Markets: Six Major Models Exposed, Polymarket Trading Strategies Enter Professionalization Phase

As institutional investors and quantitative funds enter prediction markets, the industry structure is undergoing transformation. In 2026, prediction market trading volume surpassed $13.7 billion, with quantitative strategies gradually becoming mainstream, employing sophisticated financial models to achieve stable returns. Core methodologies include LMSR, Kelly Criterion, and Bayesian updating, with technical implementation focusing on data quality and execution efficiency. Retail investors struggle to replicate institutional advantages without model capabilities.

Prediction Markets Shift Collectively: Iran Conflict May Prolonged, Bitcoin and Inflation Face Intensified Pressure

Due to tensions in the Middle East, short-term ceasefire expectations have declined, affecting global inflation and interest rates, and putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Analysis suggests that high oil prices and high interest rates will continue to suppress the crypto market, with future market trends closely tied to geopolitical developments.

A certain historical prediction 11 consecutive winning address invested $40,000, betting that the US and Iran will not reach a ceasefire before 4.15

On March 19, Gate News reported that monitoring shows an address on Polymarket deposited $40,000 betting on a ceasefire between the US and Iran before April 15, with the current probability of negation at 80%. Trump warned Iran that if it attacks Qatar again, the US will take stronger action and is considering deploying an additional thousand American troops. Meanwhile, the trader's behavior suggests they are not only betting on the event but may also have profit-taking and stop-loss strategies in place.

A certain Smart Money address invested $12,000, betting that Ukraine will not give up joining NATO this year

On Polymarket, an address placed a $12,000 bet that Ukraine will not join NATO this year, with a 69% winning probability. Despite U.S. efforts to broker a ceasefire, the Ukrainian government faces public pressure to abandon NATO membership aspirations, making compromise difficult.

Successfully predicted Maduro's arrest address and invested $65,400, betting on US-Iran ceasefire before May

On a prediction market, an address that successfully predicted Maduro's arrest invested $65,400 betting on whether the US and Iran will reach a ceasefire before May, with the current probability at 33%. The former counterterrorism chief stated that concerns about strikes on Iran failed to reach Trump. Trump emphasized that the US and Qatar were not involved when Israel attacked Iran's South Pars gas field, while major European countries tend to handle related issues through diplomatic means.