Prediction Market

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a lawsuit seeking to stop the State of Illinois from regulating prediction markets, arguing that the state’s actions infringe on federal regulatory authority. This case marks the CFTC’s first legal action to challenge state-level gambling regulation. The dispute began when Illinois issued a cease-and-desist order to the prediction market Kalshi, alleging it violated the state’s gambling laws.

Based on data from a prediction platform, the probability that the U.S. Department of Homeland Security government shutdown will continue for more than 70 days has fallen to 8%, with trading volume exceeding $1.27 million. Trump said he is about to sign an order to ensure employee pay, praising House Republicans for their efforts on this issue.

YZi Labs, after EASY Residency Season 2, added an investment in the prediction market platform Predict.fun, with Susquehanna Crypto participating in this round of funding. Predict.fun has accumulated trading volume of over $1.8 billion, with more than 130,000 users, and completed the acquisition of Probable to expand into the Asian market.

Gate News update, April 2, according to an official announcement, the prediction market platform Polymarket has integrated Pyth Pro as the data source for its new series of traditional asset contracts. Polymarket will rely on Pyth Pro data to provide the daily rise and fall and daily closing markets for gold, silver, and major stock index ETF, and will ensure full transparency throughout via real-time price charts updated every second.

On Polymarket, the probability related to WTI crude oil touching $120 in April 2026 has recently risen sharply, and it is currently at 65%. The settlement rules for this prediction contract are: within the specified time, if the price reaches or exceeds $120, then it is "Yes"; otherwise, it is "No".

Polymarket’s daily fees jumped from about $363,000 on March 30 to $995,000 on April 1, then fell to $899,000 on April 2. This increase was driven by the platform expanding its fee categories, covering multiple areas.

Prediction market Polymarket’s recent fee expansion has started to affect its numbers, with daily fees and revenue climbing sharply in the days following a March 30 price overhaul.  According to DefiLlama data, daily fees rose from about $363,000 on Monday to over $1 million on both Wednesday and

Polymarket, after adjusting its fee structure, saw a significant increase in its daily fees and revenue; revenue at one point reached $995,000. The platform faces intense regulatory scrutiny, but it is still seeking to expand and preparing for a new round of funding, with a valuation that could reach $20 billion. Future development will depend on balancing compliance with market activity.

The Australian Prime Minister announced that, starting in 2027, gambling advertisements will be strictly limited to reduce children’s exposure. The new rules ban ads from being shown during live sports broadcasts, and they also do not allow celebrity endorsements. Despite the tighter advertising restrictions, the ban has not yet been fully achieved. Meanwhile, a cryptocurrency prediction platform is facing a crackdown, traditional gambling exposure will decline, and legal developments need to be monitored.

Taiwanese investigators and prosecutors cracked the first Polymarket cryptocurrency election betting case, arresting two bettors. Because they admitted their wrongdoing, they were granted deferred prosecution, and authorities reminded the public not to place illegal bets. The case shows that identity can be verified through tracing the flow of funds, emphasizes the Election and Recall Law’s provisions and potential criminal liability, and calls on the public to comply with the law.

Paradigm is developing a specialized prediction market trading terminal, positioning itself as a key player in the booming sector. It aims to create a market-making desk and a prediction market index, enhancing its infrastructure and attracting serious institutional investment.

Yunlin District Prosecutors Office cracked the nation’s first case involving a virtual currency nine-in-one election betting platform, and two bettors are being investigated for violating the “Election and Recall Act” and gambling-related offenses. As early as February, authorities had warned about the illegality of this type of betting activity. The case shows that on-chain transactions are not anonymous and can be traced, which affects the fairness of the election.

USD.AI has opened claims for the token CHIP, but trading is still not possible, which does not match the settlement standard “issue tokens” for prediction markets, resulting in settlement being “No.” The agreement is led by Framework Ventures, and although it has market momentum, there are risks in the lending model and team background that need to be assessed. The official listing date will be key to pricing.

Polymarket’s single-day fee revenue surpassed $1 million on April 1, reaching $1.02 million, showing a clear increase. This change was driven by its adjustment to the fee mechanism and the addition of multiple market categories to broaden its chargeable scope.

On April 2, an account on the Polymarket platform placed a $160,000 bet that the Spurs would beat the Warriors. This account has made a profit of more than $1.7 million. The Spurs currently have a record of 57 wins and 18 losses and are ranked 2nd in the Western Conference.

On April 2, Polymarket’s prediction shows the probability that SpaceX will IPO before June 15 has risen to 75%. Insiders say SpaceX has already filed a draft IPO registration statement with the SEC, which could make it the first listed mega-IPO, ahead of OpenAI and Anthropic.

Paradigm is developing a prediction market trading terminal for professional traders and market makers, and plans to set up an internal market-making department and conduct research into prediction market indices. This terminal does not compete with Kalshi because the two products target different audiences. In addition, Paradigm will also expand its investment focus to artificial intelligence and robotics technology, demonstrating its strategic shift from a crypto venture capital firm to a multi-strategy technology investment institution.

Paradigm is developing a prediction market trading terminal, aiming at professional traders and market makers, and plans to set up an internal market-making business while exploring the feasibility of prediction market indices. Its main investment’s Kalshi valuation has reached $22 billion, indicating rising market momentum. Paradigm is also expanding into the AI and robotics space, reflecting a diversified business strategy.

Metya, a popular Web3-based social payments entity, has partnered with Delphi AI, a renowned AI-enhanced prediction market firm. The partnership attempts to merge the user-focused ecosystem of Metya with the cutting-edge predictive intelligence of Delphi AI. As per Metya’s official social media