Monetary Policy

The latest U.S. non-farm payroll data shows that 130,000 new jobs were added in January, far exceeding expectations. The labor market demonstrated resilience, easing concerns about an economic slowdown. The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in July, and strong data has reduced the immediate need to implement easing policies. Additionally, Bitcoin experienced a brief rally before pulling back.

ChainCatcher reports that, according to Jinshi, Gammaroad Capital Partners Chief Investment Officer Jordan Rizzuto stated that the potential employment situation appears to be stronger than expected and may even be more optimistic than the recent assessments and descriptions by the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). If these data are maintained in revisions in the coming months, the implications for monetary policy suggest that we are closer to the neutral interest rate than the market previously priced in.

BlockBeats News, February 11 — Goldman Sachs Asset Management analyst Kay Haigh stated that there are some initial signs of the labor market tightening again, but there is still a way to go before it is fully tight. Given the economy’s continued outperformance, the focus of the FOMC will shift to inflation. We still believe the Federal Reserve has room to cut interest rates twice this year; however, if the CPI released on Friday unexpectedly rises, it could cause the Fed to lean hawkish. (Jin10)

Odaily Planet Daily reports that according to CME "Federal Reserve Watch": the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 21.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 78.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by April is 35.7%, with an 58.9% chance of holding rates steady, and a 5.4% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 49%.

ChainCatcher News, according to Jinshi reports, a Reuters survey shows that out of 101 surveyed economists, 60 believe that the Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.25%-3.5% range before the end of June.

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has launched three major initiatives to test the applications of the "Ringgit stablecoin" and "tokenized deposits." Participating institutions include Standard Chartered Bank, Maybank, and UOB Group. The aim is to study their impact on financial stability, with plans to provide clear guidelines by the end of 2026.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has issued new guidelines allowing licensed virtual asset brokers to provide margin financing services and establish a regulatory framework for perpetual contracts, limited to professional investors. The aim is to enhance market liquidity and risk management while opening up related companies to act as market makers. The SFC emphasizes a step-by-step approach to developing the digital asset market.

On February 11, news reports indicated that the White House's second round of consultations on stablecoin regulation failed to reach an agreement between banks and crypto companies. The core disagreement centered on whether "stablecoins can offer yields or rewards to users." Several crypto organizations engaged in discussions with major U.S. banks, but deadlock over key provisions has once again hindered the development of the U.S. stablecoin regulatory framework. The meeting was directly related to the proposed CLARITY Act. This legislation is based on the digital asset regulatory framework proposed by the GENIUS Act and has been passed by the House of Representatives, but the Senate has yet to advance it. The yield provisions are seen as the biggest obstacle. Banks are concerned that if stablecoins offer interest or rewards, it will divert traditional deposits, weaken banks' ability to lend to households and small to medium-sized enterprises, and thus impact financial system stability.

February 11 News, due to the market's high attention to the upcoming release of the U.S. January non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, Bitcoin prices have sharply retreated to around $66,000 in the past 24 hours. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are moving in sync, with Wall Street generally believing that employment may rebound, which would weaken the Federal Reserve's possibility of cutting interest rates in June, thereby putting pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the January employment report today. Economists expect non-farm payrolls to increase by about 70,000, higher than December's 50,000, indicating that the labor market, while slowing, remains resilient. The forecast range varies from a decrease of 10,000 jobs to an increase of 135,000, with the unemployment rate possibly remaining at 4.4%. Average hourly earnings are expected to grow by 0.3% month-over-month, with the annual growth rate slowing to 3.6%.

On February 11, Bitcoin prices slightly retreated but remained around $66,000, with the market holding its breath as it awaits guidance from several key macroeconomic data points, including the latest U.S. employment report, Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the potential risk of a government shutdown. Ethereum also came under pressure, with prices still below $2,000, reflecting a generally weak risk appetite in the crypto market. The current total market capitalization of digital assets is approximately $2.29 trillion, down about 2.5% over the past 24 hours. In the United States, the delayed January employment report will disclose non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage inflation, which are considered important indicators for assessing the economic start in 2026. Previously, in December, about 50,000 new jobs were added, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. Economists expect January's new job additions to rebound to 55,000, with the unemployment rate likely remaining unchanged. Tariff policies, immigration restrictions, and the accelerated replacement of traditional jobs by artificial intelligence are seen as the main variables disrupting the labor market.

On February 11, Malaysia's Central Bank (BNM) announced plans to launch three pilot projects by 2026 focused on local currency stablecoins and tokenized deposits, primarily serving domestic and cross-border wholesale payment scenarios. The initiatives are coordinated by the Malaysia Digital Asset Innovation Hub (DAIH), which is the regulatory sandbox environment in Malaysia for testing crypto and blockchain financial applications. BNM revealed in the announcement that these three projects will be led by multiple local and international banks. One project, led by Standard Chartered Malaysia and Capital A, will focus on Ringgit stablecoin settlement for B2B scenarios; the other two, led by Maybank and CIMB, will concentrate on tokenized deposit schemes for payment purposes. These tests aim to evaluate the potential impact of stablecoins and on-chain deposits on the monetary system, liquidity management, and financial stability.

US yields have fallen, hinting at a potential rate cut in 2026, driving Gold and Silver prices up. This raises speculation about a crypto market bull run, as investors may allocate more to high-risk assets.

QCP Capital analyzes Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounds, market sentiment is optimistic, and a bottom may be forming. Capital inflows are picking up, with BTC ETF recording a net inflow of .45 billion, and ETH ETF also turning into a net inflow. Macro factors have improved, but the Fear and Greed Index remains in the extreme fear zone, indicating that market sentiment is fragile.

Taiwan stocks closed for the Lunar New Year on February 11, entering the Year of the Horse, while global capital markets continue to operate. Key events during the Lunar New Year include US GDP and global PMI, with NVIDIA's earnings report on February 26 being the biggest focus. The five major market trends include emerging markets outperforming US stocks, small and mid-cap stocks leading blue chips, AI hardware outperforming software, and more. Risk tracking includes four assets: IGV, MOVE, silver, and Bitcoin.

Cleveland Federal Reserve Chair Beth Hammack stated that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may pause further rate cuts as inflation remains too high. She warned that inflation this year could stay around 3% and that interest rates will not be adjusted again until the 2% target is reached. Crypto traders have lowered their expectations for rate cuts, with Polymarket data showing a decrease from 3 expected cuts to 2.

ChainCatcher reports that, according to Jintao, overnight U.S. retail sales data was weak, and the US dollar index DXY weakened, leading to increased market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Swissquote senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya stated that U.S. consumer spending may indeed be weakening, although large-scale AI investments will still be a significant support for economic growth, but may not create more jobs. She pointed out that if this is true, the U.S. economy will exhibit a dual-speed growth pattern, which will require policy support from the Federal Reserve.

The Bank of England has launched a six-month pilot project called "Synchronization Lab" to test the synchronized settlement of central bank currency and tokenized assets. Participating organizations include Chainlink and Swift, aiming to modernize real-time gross settlement infrastructure.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the delayed January non-farm payroll data later on Wednesday evening. Investors expect an increase of 70,000 jobs in January, following a gain of 50,000 in December. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%, and the year-over-year growth rate of average hourly earnings is forecasted to slow from 3.8% to 3.6%. TD Securities analysts are more cautious, predicting only a 45,000 increase in employment for January.

On February 11, news reports indicate that influenced by the shift towards a hawkish outlook in the US macroeconomic prospects, Bitcoin and mainstream cryptocurrencies collectively weakened in early Wednesday trading. Data shows that Bitcoin's price fell below $67,000, declining about 3% in the past 24 hours to around $66,800; Ethereum also retreated to approximately $1,960. Major coins like XRP and BNB each dropped more than 4%, with market risk appetite significantly cooling. Analysts point out that the core driver of this correction is the re-pricing of expectations regarding US monetary policy. Andri Fauzan Adziima, Head of Research at Bitrue, stated that after Kevin Warsh was nominated as Federal Reserve Chair, the market generally believes that future policies will be more tightening, and the liquidity environment may continue to tighten, with less room for rate cuts. This expectation directly weakened the willingness to allocate assets to high-risk investments.

The Central Bank of Malaysia (BNM) announced that it will test the practical applications of Ringgit stablecoins and tokenized deposits in 2026, evaluating their impact on monetary and financial stability. The Digital Asset Innovation Hub (DAIH) has launched three initiatives: Standard Chartered Bank and Capital A are exploring inter-company stablecoin settlements, Malayan Banking and CIMB are testing tokenized deposit payments. The tests will cover domestic and cross-border payment scenarios, with some use cases considering Islamic law.