#美联储加息预期再起
1. Trump’s “Pause in Strikes for 10 Days”: Negotiation Sincerity or Pre-War Planning?
Preliminary conclusion: More likely a tactical game of “strike and negotiate,” aiming to buy time and public opinion space for ground operations, rather than a true ceasefire.
- Official statement: On March 26, Trump announced that, at Iran’s request, the U.S. would pause attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 10 days (until 8 p.m. on April 6), claiming that negotiations are “progressing smoothly.” Iran, through Pakistan, conveyed five negotiation conditions and criticized the U.S. proposal as “one-sided and unfair.”
- Substance of the game: Trump called Iran’s allowing 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz a “gift,” but it’s actually a move to buy time for energy corridor security; Iran continues military actions while negotiating indirectly, trying to buffer and assess Israel’s ground intentions. No ceasefire has occurred; military operations are ongoing.
- Key signals: Trump emphasized “U.S. bombings will continue,” and the White House indicated ground operations are still being planned. The 10-day window is more about coordinating troop movements and pressuring Iran, not reaching a negotiation consensus.
2. Will the Federal Reserve “Aggressively Hike Rates”?
Preliminary conclusion: The probability of a sharp rate hike in the short term is very low, but the “prolonged high interest rates” outlook is reinforced, with rate cuts significantly delayed, raising concerns about inflation exceeding expectations and forcing policy shifts.
- Policy status: In March, the Fed maintained interest rates at 3.50%-3.75%. The dot plot shows only one rate cut in 2026 (by 25 basis points). Seven officials expect no rate cuts this year, signaling a neutral to hawkish stance.
- Conditions for rate hikes: Must meet multiple criteria—persistent inflation exceeding expectations, an overheated labor market, and a policy shift after a new chair is appointed. Currently, Middle East conflicts are pushing inflation up, but the economy has not yet reached the point of “aggressive tightening.”
- Market expectations: Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows a 74% chance of maintaining current rates until year-end. Traders are increasingly betting on a 20 basis point rate hike, but institutions generally expect a wait-and-see approach in the first half and a higher likelihood of rate cuts in the second half.
3. Oil, Gold, and BTC Investment Strategies
1. Oil: Geopolitical premium and supply-demand resonance, buy on dips
- Logic: Ongoing Middle East conflicts and Strait of Hormuz transit risks elevate premiums; global supply elasticity declines, demand recovers modestly, supporting oil prices.
- Strategy: Use pullbacks to buy in batches, focus on WTI support levels at $65-$70, mainly trading short-term waves, and hold long-term until conflicts ease.
2. Gold: Short-term pressure, buy on dips for medium to long-term
- Logic: Recent sharp decline due to a strong dollar, high interest rates suppressing safe-haven demand, combined with liquidity tightening; but de-dollarization, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks remain, providing medium- to long-term support.
- Strategy: Avoid blindly bottom-fishing; wait for gold prices to stabilize (e.g., London Gold around $4100-$4200), then buy in tranches via gold ETFs, using it as a “stabilizer” in the portfolio, with no more than 10% of total assets.
3. BTC: High-risk asset, small position testing
- Logic: Tied to risk sentiment, heavily influenced by macro policies and market volatility; currently lacks clear independent trend, unsuitable for heavy positions.
- Strategy: Use no more than 5% of idle funds, set strict stop-losses, avoid leverage, and wait for market sentiment to stabilize before adjusting positions.
Summary and Action Recommendations
- Short-term: Focus on geopolitical developments (April 6 window), U.S. inflation data (which will influence Fed’s pace), control positions, and avoid high leverage.
- Medium to long-term: Use oil and gold as core allocations; BTC as an auxiliary. Maintain diversified investments and avoid betting on a single asset.
