Betting on Polymarket that Khamenei will step down before March 31, probability soars to 93%

“Sports Betting Contract” is a derivative! The U.S. CFTC blocks local law enforcement to fight for regulatory control of prediction markets

The U.S. federal government argues that sports event wagering should be treated as a financial derivative rather than gambling, and it seeks to bar Arizona from enforcing against Kalshi, the prediction market platform. If the court backs the federal position, prediction markets will operate under uniform nationwide regulation, weakening each state’s ability to regulate. This legal dispute concerns the legitimacy of prediction markets and the allocation of regulatory authority, affecting the future development of the industry.

Caixin: Polymarket’s use of USDC settlement creates legal risk for participants within China

The article discusses legal disputes involving Polymarket prediction markets, especially the unclear boundary between insider trading and gambling. It emphasizes that using USDC for settlement exposes Chinese participants to legal risk, and it mentions the “End Prediction Market Corruption Act” proposed by a U.S. senator, which prohibits certain government officials and their family members from participating in prediction market trading.

Bitcoin Breaks Through $72,000: The Iran–Israel ceasefire boosts risk assets, with $427 million in short positions liquidated, but Polymarket shows disagreement on end-of-year outlook

Bitcoin broke through $72,000 on April 10, mainly due to a fragile ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran that boosted market risk appetite, with funds flowing from safe-haven assets into Bitcoin. Increased institutional inflows and a rebound in Large Investors’ holdings are driving the price higher. Technical analysis shows that the main resistance lies in the $72,200 to $73,500 range. Despite a bullish outlook in the short term, there is still disagreement over forecasts for Bitcoin’s price by year-end, and the risk of a pullback also needs to be watched.

Bank of America report: Kalshi controls 89% of prediction markets, regulatory advantage leads the competition

A Bank of America report says that prediction markets are expected to see trading volume grow this week, with Kalshi growing 6% under CFTC regulation and accounting for 89% market share. By contrast, Polymarket saw its trading volume fall 16% due to compliance restrictions. Legal disputes between the CFTC and various states will affect the future direction of prediction markets and may reshape the market’s competitive landscape. Major exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance are accelerating entry into this space, further driving prediction markets to become a mainstream financial product.

Insider Trading Suspicion! The White House Bans Staff From Participating in Prediction Market Betting

The White House Office of Management issued a warning on March 23, banning employees from using nonpublic information to participate in prediction markets, saying this constitutes a criminal offense. The report said that 15 minutes before Trump announced a pause in airstrikes against Iran, oil futures saw unusual trading, and three Polymarket accounts earned more than 600k yuan by accurately predicting outcomes, raising concerns about insider trading. The White House emphasized that this behavior violates ethical standards and said there is no specific evidence yet pointing to any individuals who broke the rules.

Polymarket「The probability that Taylor Swift will get married before the end of June」falls to 19%, down 45% over the past 24 hours

Polymarket’s odds prediction for Taylor Swift’s wedding have fallen to 19%, down 45% within 24 hours. The latest reports indicate the wedding will take place on July 3 in New York, rather than the June 13 date previously rumored.