The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a major event today—over $4 billion in options are set to expire, involving major assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple (XRP), and Solana (SOL). Traders generally expect another round of sharp short-term volatility in the market, and before next week’s US Fed FOMC interest rate decision, the total crypto market cap may once again fall below $3 trillion.
In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has already seen $270 million in liquidations. Combined with rising yields on US Treasuries, Japanese bonds, and gold, Bitcoin and major assets have come under pressure and declined. Although BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL experienced brief rebounds during today’s session, the overall technical structure remains weak.
Bitcoin: $3.5 Billion Options Expiry, Max Pain at $91,000
According to Deribit data, more than 36,000 BTC options expire today, with a total value of about $3.5 billion and a put/call ratio of 0.92, indicating a neutral sentiment. In the past 24 hours, bullish trading volume still exceeded bearish volume, showing that bulls maintain some level of confidence.
(Source: Deribit)
The max pain point is at $91,000, slightly below the current price, suggesting downward pressure for BTC. Deribit delta data shows that the probability of the price staying above $91,000 at expiry is relatively high.
Glassnode warns that the area around $93,000 remains highly sensitive to macro volatility, and unless BTC returns to $95,800 (0.75 quantile), it will be difficult to regain strong momentum.
Ethereum: $667 Million Options Expiry, Short-Term Sentiment Weakens
Over 210,000 ETH options expire today with a notional value of $667 million and a put/call ratio of 0.78. However, a surge in bearish trades over the past 24 hours has pushed the put/call ratio up to 1.42, signaling a significant short-term bearish sentiment.
The max pain point is at $3,050, higher than the current price, but bullish contracts are active in the strike region, reducing the risk of large-scale selling. Traders generally expect ETH to return above $3,100 after expiry.
ETH is currently trading at $3,165, with 24-hour trading volume down 20%.
Ripple (XRP): Max Pain at $2.15, Still Facing Downward Pressure
XRP options worth $5.94 million are set to expire, with a put/call ratio of 0.72, indicating mildly bullish sentiment. However, the max pain point is at $2.15, near the current price range and a key short-term level.
Although the XRP spot ETF continues to attract inflows, the price has dropped 4% to $2.08, hitting a low of $2.07. Whale selling pressure and risk-off sentiment may continue to suppress a rebound.
Solana: $12.54 Million Options Expiry, Key Level at $132
SOL options worth $12.54 million expire today, with a put/call ratio of 0.76. The max pain point is $132, below the current price. As bearish pricing is higher at key strike prices, traders may push the price closer to $132.
SOL has declined nearly 4% in the past 24 hours, with trading volume plunging 23%, indicating a clear lack of market participation ahead of the FOMC.
Overall, today’s options expiration event will determine the short-term market direction, while next week’s FOMC decision remains the more critical macro factor.
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