Ethereum needs to hold above this key support to avoid a major sell-off

An address linked to Bitmine has just accumulated millions of ETH, despite warnings from analysts that the coin is standing on its last important support level before potentially plunging into a deep price gap.

Meanwhile, Tom Lee is drawing attention with a new valuation model, predicting that ETH could fluctuate between $12,000 and $62,500—a range so wide it could “please everyone.”

The upcoming developments will not only test Ethereum’s price levels but also serve as a test of faith for everyone closely following this coin.

The Numbers Everyone’s Talking About

Tom Lee has just released new numbers on Ethereum, and they’re hard to ignore. The gap between his estimates is so large that it almost challenges the faith of every investor.

According to Lee’s model, ETH’s “fair value” based on the long-term average ETH/BTC ratio is around $12,000. If the market returns to the 2021 ratio, that number jumps to $21,800.

In the most optimistic scenario, where Ethereum becomes the core payment infrastructure, its value could even reach $62,500.

NguSource: XAll these numbers stand in stark contrast to the current price of just $2,800, creating a surprising and impressive disparity.

Whales “Love” Fear

A wallet linked to Bitmine just made an impressive trade, buying up to 21,537 ETH—equivalent to about $59.17 million—at a price of roughly $2,750, while many retail investors are panicking and taking profits as the price plunges.

This strategy is reminiscent of how Strategy accumulates Bitcoin, but this time, the “spotlight” is on Ethereum. Even as social media is flooded with rumors and fear of a market crash, the whales seem calm and unshaken.

NguSource: XAggregated open interest (OI) remains around $15.46 billion, indicating the market hasn’t seen a strong wave of liquidations or mass “exiting.” If traders were truly panicking, OI would have dropped sharply, but the reality is quite the opposite. The funding rate is currently just a mildly positive 0.0053, showing traders are still leaning long, but not aggressively so.

NguSource: CoinalyzeThis phenomenon often occurs after a sharp drop: the market looks weak, but strong hands are quietly intervening, maintaining stability and ready to seize opportunities.

ETF Flows Turn Negative

According to the latest weekly data from SoSoValue, Ethereum ETFs (ETH) saw about $500 million in net outflows, marking one of the largest withdrawals in recent months. Total net assets have also fallen from previous highs, indicating ETF investors are reducing exposure rather than increasing it.

NguSource: SoSoValueNotably, while ETF flows have turned negative, “whales” are still accumulating millions of ETH directly from the market. On one hand, regulated ETF investors seem cautious in the face of price volatility and macro factors; on the other, whales appear unconcerned and remain active buyers.

The Final Support Level

This time, Ethereum has almost no “room” left to fall. On the chart, ETH is sitting right above its last structural base—the zone that has held the entire range from 2022 to 2025.

In previous cycles (2016–2018 and 2018–2021), every time ETH lost this level, the price plummeted quickly as there was virtually no support below. That’s why analysts call this the “cliff.” Structurally, that assessment is entirely accurate.

NguSource: XBut the bigger concern lies in the candlestick behavior. Sellers are showing significant strength, with rising trading volume as evidence. Price is weakening right at a zone that shouldn’t break.

However, market sentiment isn’t entirely bearish. Whales are still accumulating, crowd sentiment leans bullish, while ETF outflows and spot accumulation are happening simultaneously, creating two opposing forces.

NguSource: XIt’s a strange combination: positive sentiment prevails, but technical structure isn’t supporting the price. If ETH loses this level, the next support isn’t just “a bit lower”—it’s much, much lower.

That is the cliff.

What Happens Next?

If this support zone holds, the situation could completely reverse. The whales’ accumulation moves will make strategic sense; Bitmine’s “bottom buys” will be seen as early signals, and long-term valuation models will suddenly feel much more reliable.

But if this price zone is breached… ETF outflows could accelerate, market structure will visibly weaken, and the “liquidity gap” below will immediately become an urgent concern. There will be virtually no buffer left—just a vast empty space waiting to swallow the price.

SN_Nour