RawlalGaib

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Trillions have flowed out of risky assets in the stock market, while Bitcoin has remained largely flat with a neutral impact. This is because the leverage cycle had already reset before the conflict even started to create fear in the market and with no crowded long positions on Bitcoin shorts are currently paying negative funding, so any positive spark from here will trigger a short squeeze that quickly fills the entire gap up to 90/96k in a very short time window.
Leverage flushed out before February → conflict starts → retail piles into shorts → Bitcoin shows no impact → conflict pauses → sh
BTC-3,4%
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Imagine being a grown ass man posting rage bait content in the big 2k26 because it’s April… Anyway, the biggest crash in human civilization history is coming this month, and Bitcoin will go sub $10k and the stock market sub 2,000
BTC-3,4%
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Working on what will likely be the most controversial and important post until at least the end of the decade
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The biggest question bears must ask themselves is: what’s going to happen next time when the VIX goes above 35 into 50? What will Bitcoin do? The majority are already betting on a breakdown from this whatever bear flag as we’re following the "2022 fractal". But what they don’t realize is that if the VIX reaches let’s say 50, that dip will be instantly absorbed, and the 2022 fractal will be invalidated the next second and the bear flag turns into a double bottom... just saying.
BTC-3,4%
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They don't know they're getting a fake out
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LTF update on the oil situation, it looks like we are getting closer to a resolution of the current conflict either further escalation or the parties coming together to reach a deal.
From a structural point of view, we have been building a wedge pattern that will soon break in one direction and it all depends on what happens now, if this forms a lower high under the previous double top, then we will trade lower with a break below the prior higher low would act as confirmation, and oil moves into the 60s or below area.
On the other hand 100 remains the key level, and a move above it would trigg
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Feeling like we'll trade soon for ETH back at 2,450 and for BTC at 80K/84K around or slighty above the 100 daily EMA
ETH-4,89%
BTC-3,4%
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Noticed a few accounts that were saying (altcoin season starts tomorrow) have gone kinda silent and now those same accounts are sharing a bear flag
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Imagine calling yourself a trader when you switch your conviction just one day later... seen a few
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I just woke up, did i miss the black Monday?
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Looking at how TLT is behaving—going down while yields are going up—this suggests there are still inflation concerns and that rates remain elevated. Most of the time, this does not signal an immediate recession, rather it points to a delayed recession.
Right now, we are essentially in the process of a soft landing versus a recession. However, even if uncertainty fades, inflation declines further, and we eventually get rate cuts and recession could still be inevitable, whether it happens now or later the risk doesn’t disappear—it may simply be delayed.
The scenario I currently lean toward is th
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What chart are you watching the most right now?
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haven’t seen the S&P opening red on a monday for a while, pretty much critical times tonight and tomorrow
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One of my 2026 predictions made early in the year, was that traditional markets would eventually trade 24/7. As you know, in past years, most bad news tended to break over the weekend when markets were closed minimizing immediate impact, while crypto markets had to absorb all the volatility.
The question I’m curious about is, what happens once traditional markets are live 24/7 even on weekends? I assume manipulation will still happen, but not as frequently as it does now.
This also fits with my broader idea that the world is moving toward a major shift in the financial system. Before that happ
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Remember the timeline I gave recently? From the 18th to the 25th—or to give a more rounded estimate, about 1–2 weeks after the FOMC will be the peak uncertainty period, when things can go south. This is the only time window in which Trump could potentially force a more severe market crash using the conflict narrative in his favor. So the plan remains the same, crypto dips are for buying, and stocks remain untouched, at least until the dust settles
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A few days before the war started, I was closely watching the US10Y because it felt like something was about to happen. The bullish case would have been for yields to drop below 4% and stay there, giving risk assets a small window to outperform. But since 4% has been a key level for years, they had to manufacture a narrative to delay everything and Instead we bounced from 4% to 4.3–4.4%.
Last year, with tariffs, the same shenanigans happened. To delay things, they pushed a narrative while yields were sitting at 4%, followed by tariffs that drove yields up to 4.6%, still respecting a macro down
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small theory I had which I think I've discussed before but can't find to retweet, is about this wallet on hyperliquid, it opened a short position shortly after Trump took office early last year, and it's still running to this day, the only reason I follow it is that this short position was worth more than $50 million and tt wasn't even closed when ETH hit a new all time high last summer, which to me means that this is likely an insider wallet that knew the price would drop again.
Since December the margin of the position has been decreasing because they are closing parts of the short nearly ev
ETH-4,89%
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SMCI will soon offer one of the best entries you can get on this asset around 12–9, obviously they are now pushing this FUD narrative to drive the price lower so market makers can load as much as they can before demand skyrockets again going even past the previous ATH
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for some reason I’ve seen plenty of Bitcoin pattern charts recently highlighting the same bear flag we had from December to January, but what they don’t realize is that liquidity doesn’t always need to be taken out if there are enough short positions with liquidity to the upside, and looking at the funding rate we’re kind of flipping so this wedge pattern can easily break to the upside humbling all the clankers by pushing straight up to January levels
BTC-3,4%
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By the way a few months ago I was confused about whether to start a new bag of LTC or add to the HYPE bags I already had & for some reason, I decided to add to HYPE and it has played out about 100x better than if I had made a new LTC bag. So even though LTC is older, there are newer projects climbing the ladder quickly, and HYPE is currently holding a $9B market cap above LTC. I’d say there’s a higher chance for HYPE to reach above $100 than for LTC.
LTC-4,65%
HYPE-6,29%
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