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𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗹-𝗢𝗳𝗳: 𝗔 𝗖𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗰 '𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗥𝗲𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁' 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆?
As Bitcoin’s price continues to slide, many are wondering if this could be part of a well-known trading pattern—the "breakout and retest" play, which often precedes bigger rallies.
The breakout and retest pattern occurs when an asset, after breaking through a long-held resistance level, pulls back to retest that level, which now acts as support. This type of market behavior is rooted in human psychology and risk aversion—investors tend to book profits quickly after a breakout, only to return to the breakout point when the market pulls back.
𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻’𝘀 𝗖𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗹-𝗢𝗳𝗳: 𝗔 𝗥𝗲𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 $𝟳𝟯,𝟳𝟱𝟳?
Bitcoin has dropped over 15% this month, now testing the former resistance-turned-support at $73,757. This level was breached in November, marking the end of a consolidation period following Donald Trump's election victory. Could this pullback be a healthy retest of the breakout point, setting the stage for another rally?
The theory behind the breakout and retest play is simple: After the breakout, traders typically take profits, causing the price to drop and revisit the breakout point. When that level holds as support, new buyers who missed the initial rally jump in, triggering a more significant move upwards.
Historically, this pattern has led to massive rallies. A similar retest played out in both Q3 2023 and August-September 2020, resulting in new record highs for Bitcoin.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗮 𝗙𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗥𝗲𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗠𝗲𝗮𝗻?
However, a failed retest or a lack of a significant bounce could signal weakness, potentially leading to a downtrend. Traders should be cautious and monitor the price action closely, as this could indicate a reversal rather than a rally.
The breakout and retest concept is not limited to Bitcoin. For example, the Japanese 10-year bond yield showed a similar pattern in January 2024, triggering a double-bottom breakout and revisiting the breakout level multiple times before rising to multi-year highs.
𝗜𝘀 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗩𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗮 𝗕𝗶𝗴 𝗥𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆??
If Bitcoin's price holds at the breakout level of $73,757, it could set the stage for another big rally. However, if the support fails, we might be looking at more downside. The next few days could be critical for Bitcoin, and market participants will be watching closely to see if the "breakout and retest" play unfolds.
Stay tuned as we continue to monitor Bitcoin’s price action and the broader crypto market! #SHELL Price Rise#
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In comparison to projects like AI16Z and AGENT, the SHELL Token stands out more in the combination of technological innovation and practical application. For instance, SHELL has achieved decentralized computing resource sharing through blockchain technology, which not only effectively drops the costs of AI technology development but also improves the transparency and security of data. Furthermore, the liquidity and market acceptance of the SHELL Token are continuously increasing, laying a solid foundation for its future rise. Crypto Fear & Greed Index Hits 10 as Bitcoin Drops Below $80,000 Following Trump’s Tariff Announcement.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 10, its lowest point since June 2022, as investor sentiment deteriorates. Bitcoin has fallen below $80,000, down 25% from its peak of over $109,000 last month, with an 11% decline this week alone. Major altcoins have also experienced steep losses, with Ether down 17% and Solana 18%. The GMCI 30 Index, which tracks the top 30 cryptocurrencies, has fallen about 13% this week to 148.82. 🚨 Bitcoin Sees Unusual Surge In Exchange Inflow In 1 Day, Is A Sell-Off On The Horizon?.
Bitcoin has taken a wild ride, folks! 🚀 After an impressive bullish streak, the king of crypto has dipped its crown, losing a whopping $10,000 in just 48 hours. This sudden decline has sent shockwaves through the market, leading many to predict increased selling pressure in the near term.
In an eyebrow-raising twist, a significant number of $BTC have flocked to exchanges. Crypto whiz Amr Taha reported over 5,000 $BTC was funneled to the top exchanges not once, but three times in one single day! This spike in exchange inflows could signal that holders are prepping for a sell-off, perhaps in response to the recent market volatility.
As history shows, substantial exchange deposits often presage price corrections, stirring up uncertainty around Bitcoin’s immediate future. It's a trend many seasoned investors have seen before, with the current landscape echoing past sell-offs.
Adding fuel to the fire, the recent US Consumer Confidence report revealed a drop to an 8-month low, influenced by rising inflation and taxes. This economic backdrop is adding to the pressure, potentially impacting consumer behavior and spending power.
As the curtain rises on this dramatic stage, Bitcoin is currently trading at about $84,711, reflecting almost a 6% dip in just one day. Will the bulls regain control, or are we in for an extended bear market? One thing’s for sure: the crypto space never sleeps, so stay alert!
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⏰ Ends at 16:00 PM on March 4th (UTC) Crucial $BTC Update – Read Carefully! 🚨
I won’t repeat how the Fear & Greed Index is now at levels lower than the bear-market lows, or how daily strength indicators are at their most oversold since the bear-market bottom.
Instead, let’s focus on what really matters, market structure and what it’s telling us.
Since early December, when I substantially de-risked my positions, I’ve compared the current price action with the one of January 2024.
(See thread here:
I still believe this perspective remains valid, the fear in the market is palpable, and the capitulation is real.
But let’s step back and play devil's advocate: What if this perspective doesn’t play out? What if 109K was the macro top? I always say that it's important to be prepared for the worst and hope the best, so let's the key confluences I'll track!
Tracking the Reversal:
As I highlighted before, I was watching for a worst-case scenario involving a deeper correction into the 70-75K range before a recovery. Now that we're approaching this range, my focus shifts to tracking the potential reversal.
Once it happens, I’ll reassess confluences and the market sentiment. If the Fear & Greed Index flips aggressively back into “Greed” as everyone starts screaming for higher prices, that would be a major red flag.
In that case, I would consider this a high-timeframe Wave B and a potential Complacency Zone..
That remains my worst-case scenario, and there’s no way to say with certainty that it will play out with the current data we have.
To confirm a macro top, I would need to see:
📌 A Macro Lower High forming.
📌 A new range developing (Distribution).
📌 An Altseason with significant Liquidity Outflows from $BTC.
That would be my signal that the macro top is most likely in at 109K and I would start building a massive cash position to be prepared against a potential crash.
But for now, my Base Case remains intact: I still expect an upward move above the prior ATH. The price is currently sitting at the bottom of the support range I highlighted in previous updates. And unless we break below it, I believe we're still on track.
(Full update here:
Final Thoughts 👇
Regardless of which scenario ultimately plays out, I believe we will see a Relief Pump first. That’s why I see no reason to panic sell at these levels.
Instead, I’ll wait for that rally, reassess the market, and adjust accordingly based on new confluences.
The macro environment and the confluences that originally made me bullish on the high-timeframe are still intact. That’s why, for now, I continue to lean bullish on $BTC going forward.
I’ll keep tracking the signals and keep you guys posted as they come in. Stay tuned and keep notifications on! ✅👀 
