Crucial $BTC Update – Read Carefully! 🚨

I won’t repeat how the Fear & Greed Index is now at levels lower than the bear-market lows, or how daily strength indicators are at their most oversold since the bear-market bottom.

Instead, let’s focus on what really matters, market structure and what it’s telling us.

Since early December, when I substantially de-risked my positions, I’ve compared the current price action with the one of January 2024.

(See thread here:

I still believe this perspective remains valid, the fear in the market is palpable, and the capitulation is real.

But let’s step back and play devil's advocate: What if this perspective doesn’t play out? What if 109K was the macro top? I always say that it's important to be prepared for the worst and hope the best, so let's the key confluences I'll track!

Tracking the Reversal:

As I highlighted before, I was watching for a worst-case scenario involving a deeper correction into the 70-75K range before a recovery. Now that we're approaching this range, my focus shifts to tracking the potential reversal.

Once it happens, I’ll reassess confluences and the market sentiment. If the Fear & Greed Index flips aggressively back into “Greed” as everyone starts screaming for higher prices, that would be a major red flag.

In that case, I would consider this a high-timeframe Wave B and a potential Complacency Zone..

That remains my worst-case scenario, and there’s no way to say with certainty that it will play out with the current data we have.

To confirm a macro top, I would need to see:

📌 A Macro Lower High forming.

📌 A new range developing (Distribution).

📌 An Altseason with significant Liquidity Outflows from $BTC.

That would be my signal that the macro top is most likely in at 109K and I would start building a massive cash position to be prepared against a potential crash.

But for now, my Base Case remains intact: I still expect an upward move above the prior ATH. The price is currently sitting at the bottom of the support range I highlighted in previous updates. And unless we break below it, I believe we're still on track.

(Full update here:

Final Thoughts 👇

Regardless of which scenario ultimately plays out, I believe we will see a Relief Pump first. That’s why I see no reason to panic sell at these levels.

Instead, I’ll wait for that rally, reassess the market, and adjust accordingly based on new confluences.

The macro environment and the confluences that originally made me bullish on the high-timeframe are still intact. That’s why, for now, I continue to lean bullish on $BTC going forward.

I’ll keep tracking the signals and keep you guys posted as they come in. Stay tuned and keep notifications on! ✅👀