Why is Bitcoin down today? The U.S. extends the Iran war, ETF outflows intensify, and miners throw in the towel

Bitcoin dips below $67,000, with a weekly decline of about 3%. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said Iran’s military operations will “continue for a little while longer,” oil prices briefly broke above $100 per barrel, and global risk assets are broadly under pressure. Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded $296 million in net outflows over the same period, ending a streak of four consecutive weeks of inflows. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 9, and the market is stuck in “extreme fear.”

Geopolitical Risk: “Operation Epic Fury” Continues to Weigh on Market Sentiment

U.S. military actions against Iran under “Operation Epic Fury” began on February 28, 2026. As of late March, strikes on more than 11,000 targets have already been carried out. In an interview, Vance said the operation is intended to fundamentally weaken Iran’s threat capabilities. He noted that “the vast majority of military targets have basically been completed,” but the operation still needs to be carried forward.

The U.S. Central Command also announced that the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, carrying about 3,500 Marines, has entered the Middle East area of responsibility, showing that the ceasefire timeline remains highly uncertain. Intelligence obtained by Reuters likewise indicates that only about one-third of Iran’s missile and drone stockpiles have been destroyed, which differs from more optimistic public remarks by some officials.

The Strait of Hormuz carries critical global oil shipping. The conflict’s continuation keeps inflation expectations elevated, further compressing the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting space and directly weighing on valuation logic for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

ETF Outflows and a Fed Policy Shift: A Double Macroeconomic Headwind

(Source: SoSoValue)

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $296 million for the week from March 23 to 27. Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of $206 million over the same period, as institutional capital shifts to defense in the short term.

Structural change in the macro picture is also starting to take effect, and market expectations for the Fed’s policy path have undergone a fundamental shift:

Rate-hike expectations return to pricing: The market has already priced in roughly 18 basis points of rate hikes; short-term rate-cut expectations are nearly fully discounted

Nonfarm employment becomes a key observation window: February’s employment surprise shrank by 92,000 jobs, while March is expected to add about 48,000; if the data sustains resilience, consensus that “high rates will last longer” will be further reinforced

Inflation pressure stays high: The Middle East situation layered on top of oil prices running at elevated levels makes the path for inflation cooling more circuitous

ISM Services PMI and job openings data will also be released throughout this week, providing the market with more reference signals about economic momentum.

Miner Capitulation Signals Emerge: MARA Holdings Sells 15,133 BTC

(Source: CryptoQuant)

The miners’ position index (MPI) fell to -1.04 this week, the third-lowest level in history. CryptoQuant analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente noted that this value indicates miners are moving far fewer BTC to exchanges than the annual average, which structurally reduces selling pressure and is a potentially bullish signal. He also warned: “If there is no clear synchronized confirmation of demand expansion— including spot inflows, ETF inflows, or the build-up of derivatives positions— then a low MPI alone cannot lead to sustained upside.”

A CoinShares report, meanwhile, shows that 20% of Bitcoin miners are exhibiting capitulation behavior. For listed miners, the weighted average BTC holding cost per coin is $79,995. Large miner MARA Holdings announced this week that it has sold 15,133 BTC, raising about $1.1 billion, with the proceeds used to repurchase company bonds—indicating that financial pressures in the mining industry are still continuing to accumulate. Crypto’s total market cap is currently about $2.37 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 56.1%.

Common Questions

What is the core reason Bitcoin is falling today?

This round of declines is driven by three factors: the U.S. military actions against Iran continue to spill over, pushing up oil prices and driving risk-aversion sentiment; spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $296 million in net outflows in the week; and the market has repriced Fed rate-hike expectations, squeezing valuation space for risk assets.

Do large ETF outflows mean institutions are bearish on Bitcoin long-term?

This week’s ETF outflows mainly reflect a defensive adjustment of capital amid short-term geopolitical risk, not a fundamental shift in institutional long-term holdings direction. Analysts say Bitcoin’s next leg of movement still depends on how macroeconomic conditions and the geopolitical landscape evolve overall.

What reference significance do miner capitulation signals have for future price action?

When MPI falls to historical lows, it typically means selling pressure from miners is easing. Historically, after such signals appear, prices often stabilize. However, analysts emphasize that it’s necessary to pair it with synchronized confirmation such as spot inflows or an expansion in ETF demand; only then does the signal have substantive reference value.