BlockBeats News, February 22 — According to data from the prediction platform Polymarket, the market currently estimates a 19% chance that a court will order Trump to refund tariffs before July 2026, with the probability of denial rising to 82%.
BlockBeats previously reported that on February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump’s trade tax policy was unlawful. The Supreme Court determined that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. It upheld the lower court ruling from the U.S. Federal Circuit Court of Appeals, which found Trump’s tariffs to be illegal.
Subsequently, Trump called the Supreme Court ruling a “disgrace.” Trump stated that after the ruling, he had alternative plans regarding the tariffs.
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