ChainCatcher reports that Tom Lee’s Fundstrat digital asset strategy chief Sean Farrell has issued the latest Ethereum analysis. Currently, the average cost basis for ETH is $2,241, while the current price is $1,934, resulting in an average investor loss of 22%. Comparing the current decline to historical lows, investors in 2022 experienced an average maximum loss of 39%, and in 2025, an average maximum loss of 21%. Applying these two figures to the current average cost basis of $2,241 suggests that ETH could potentially bottom out at $1,367 or $1,770.
Based on realized loss percentile analysis since 2017, the future returns indicate that the current average loss is at the 9th percentile of the highest historical levels, representing a relatively high loss level. The implied 12-month return is +81%. This suggests that Ethereum’s price is approaching a bottom. In the long term, the risk/reward ratio for Ethereum appears to be positive. Tom Lee himself reposted this analysis, stating that it helps to consider investor capital flows and position allocation near lows.
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