U.S. retail sales data weak, market expects Fed rate cuts to heat up

ADP Report: Over the four weeks ending February 28, the U.S. private sector added an average of 9,000 jobs per week

Gate News reports that on March 17, the U.S. Automatic Data Processing Company (ADP) released its weekly employment report showing that over the four-week period ending February 28, 2026, private sector employers added an average of 9,000 jobs per week.

ARK Chief Investment Officer: AI Has Boosted Labor Productivity by 2.8%, Expected to Reach 6% Over the Next Decade

Cathie Wood stated that artificial intelligence has improved labor productivity and will significantly boost growth to 6% annually over the next decade. The application of large language models has surprised many skeptics, with frontier AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI experiencing significant revenue growth, with projected future revenues expected to reach 10 trillion to 12 trillion dollars, creating a major impact on GDP.

Mysterious Trader Bets Federal Reserve Will Maintain High Rates Long-Term, Profits Around $10 Million from SOFR Options Trading

On March 17, a short-term interest rate options trade betting on the Federal Reserve maintaining higher rates for an extended period closed for a profit of approximately $10 million, exiting ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. The core thesis of the trade predicted that U.S. interest rates in 2028 would be higher than market expectations. Driven by inflation concerns, the market has downward-revised its expectations for rate cuts.

Bank of America Survey: Investor Sentiment Turns Pessimistic in March, but Less Severe Than During April 2025 Tariff Impact Period

A Bank of America survey on March 17 shows that investor sentiment is pessimistic, affected by the Iran war and concerns about private credit, with the expected proportion of strong global economic growth plummeting to 7%. Despite the decline in sentiment indicators, it remains higher than the low point in April 2025.

Moody's Chief Economist: Continued Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Would Make US Economic Recession Inevitable

Moody's economists warn that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would worsen the U.S. economic outlook, making recession difficult to avoid. The current recession probability has reached as high as 49% and is expected to exceed 50%. Unlike the past, the U.S. economy lacks post-pandemic stimulus support, employment data is weak, and future growth may be only 0.7%.

Trump Intensifies Pressure on Fed, Demanding "Immediate" Rate Cuts

Trump is calling for the Federal Reserve to immediately convene a special meeting to cut rates, emphasizing that now is the time for action and noting that lower interest rates would help reduce national debt servicing costs and stimulate the economy. Despite his pressure, market expectations for this rate cut remain low, as the Federal Reserve faces challenges from inflation and rising oil prices and may not quickly adjust policy. The crypto market has already priced in expectations of no rate cut, with focus shifting to the Federal Reserve's future policy direction.