The price of Zcash (ZEC) continues to sink in the red as it trades below the $366 mark on Thursday, after an unsuccessful attempt to break above the broken trendline from previous days. Signals from on-chain data and derivatives market reflect a clear polarization in trader sentiment, further restraining the recovery of the price.
Contrasting Sentiments Limit the Recovery
Aggregated data from CryptoQuant shows that trader sentiment for Zcash is in a state of indecision. Although large-volume orders from whales appear in both spot and futures markets—indicating bullish interest—rising selling pressure and dominance suggest that supply remains high. The interplay between these two extremes reflects cautious, hesitant investor psychology, thereby reducing the likelihood of a sustainable rebound.
In the derivatives market, the picture is equally cautious. Data from CoinGlass indicates that the ZEC funding rate turned positive from Wednesday and increased to 0.0091% on Thursday, meaning long positions are paying fees to short positions—a somewhat optimistic signal.
ZEC Funding Rate Chart | Source: CoinglassHowever, the long/short ratio has decreased to 0.94, indicating that bearish bets are increasing. This divergence highlights growing uncertainty in the derivatives market and continues to erode confidence in a clear upward trend.
ZEC Long/Short Ratio | Source: Coinglass## Zcash Price Forecast: ZEC Faces Rejection at Key Levels
From a technical perspective, ZEC’s short-term outlook remains bearish. The coin started the week relatively positively, rising about 21% until Tuesday and testing the previous upward trendline that was broken—formed by connecting lows since October.
However, the recovery quickly stalled. On Wednesday, ZEC failed to break through this critical resistance zone and reversed down 7.2%. This is considered a very strong “resistance cluster,” as it converges several key technical factors, including the old trendline, the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $411.08, the Point of Control (POC)—the price level with the highest trading volume since mid-October—and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $400.02.
Daily ZEC/USDT Chart | Source: TradingView If selling pressure persists, ZEC could extend its correction toward Sunday’s low of $325. Closing below this support level is likely to open the door to deeper declines, targeting the December 3rd low at $301.14.
Momentum indicators also support the bearish scenario. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 43, below the neutral threshold of 50, indicating that the bears are gradually gaining control. Meanwhile, MACD lines show signs of convergence, and the green histogram above the centerline is shrinking, reflecting a clear weakening of the upward momentum.
Conversely, if ZEC regains momentum and successfully closes above the 50-day EMA at $411.08 on the daily timeframe, the price could continue upward toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $430.57.
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