January 20 News, according to the latest data from prediction market Polymarket, former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh is significantly leading in bets for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with his probability of being nominated rising to 62%. As current Chair Jerome Powell’s term will end in May 2026, the market generally expects that U.S. President Trump may prefer to choose a candidate with a more hawkish monetary policy stance, making Kevin Warsh a focal point.
Public information shows that Kevin Warsh served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011, known for supporting relatively high interest rates during the global financial turmoil. He has long emphasized the importance of controlling inflation, even if this may impose certain constraints on economic growth in the short term. Compared to dovish policymakers who focus more on stimulating the economy, Warsh is usually seen as a typical hawk.
Changes in Polymarket’s prediction data are already influencing market expectations in advance. Analysts believe that if Kevin Warsh ultimately becomes Fed Chair, U.S. monetary policy may lean more toward tightening, with an increased probability of maintaining high interest rates for a longer period. This expectation often benefits the US dollar assets but may put pressure on stock market valuations, especially for sectors highly dependent on financing costs.
In the cryptocurrency field, market reactions could be more complex. In the short term, hawkish Fed expectations often lead to increased volatility in risk assets, with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin potentially under pressure. However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, if inflationary pressures persist, some investors may still view cryptocurrencies as a hedging tool against macroeconomic uncertainty, which could lead to divergent price trends.
It is important to note that although the Federal Reserve has institutional independence, the nominations of past Chairs are often highly related to the President’s economic policy orientation. The lead of Kevin Warsh on Polymarket reflects not only his personal background advantages but also the market’s re-pricing of the future direction of U.S. monetary policy.
As 2026 approaches, discussions around keywords such as “Federal Reserve Chair prediction,” “Kevin Warsh Fed stance,” and “Trump’s monetary policy direction” are expected to intensify. Regardless of the final outcome, the current changes in expectations have already had a forward-looking impact on global financial markets and the crypto market, warranting ongoing attention.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Bitcoin Price Update: BTC Jumps to $72,400 After March Inflation Comes in Softer Than Expected
Bitcoin moved from $72,000 to $72,400 on April 10 after March core CPI printed below expectations, giving crypto bulls a short-lived reprieve from months of sustained macro pressure.
Summary
March core CPI rose just 0.2%, below the 0.3% consensus forecast, while headline CPI climbed 0.9% on
Cryptonews29m ago
BlackRock withdrew 2,700 BTC and 30k ETH from a certain CEX
Gate News message: On April 11, according to monitoring by Onchain Lens, BlackRock withdrew 2,700 BTC (worth $196.87 million) and 30,000 ETH (worth $67.42 million) from a certain CEX.
GateNews43m ago
This 'Space Invaders' Clone Game Pays Real Bitcoin—If You're Skilled, Lucky or Rich
In brief
A new game based on the arcade classic Space Invaders will let one person earn a real Bitcoin reward.
To claim the reward ,they must destroy 10,000 BTC worth of transactions that mirror actual activity on the blockchain.
The winner will earn a 10,000 sats bounty, valued
Decrypt1h ago
DWF Labs co-founder: The current market is boring but it hasn’t gone away—there are still plenty of opportunities for builders and investors
DWF Labs co-founder Andrei Grachev said the market is currently in a “very boring” phase, with genuinely valuable activity taking place quietly. He advised investors to stay patient, wait for better timing, and noted that retail investors should respond rationally to market volatility—continue learning and staying engaged.
GateNews2h ago
BTC analyst Killa: By comparing historical cycles, BTC could see another round of downside before it establishes a true bottom
Gate News message, on April 11, BTC analyst Killa posted that when comparing all prior Bitcoin cycles, each cycle includes a final selloff that ends with a capitulation-style bottom. In this cycle, the time when the peak occurred was earlier than in previous cycles. Killa noted that if history repeats itself, BTC may still see another wave of declines before a true bottom is established.
GateNews2h ago
BTC 15-minute drop of 0.45%: spot selling pressure led the move, and leveraged funds stayed on the sidelines, without worsening volatility
2026-04-11 13:00 to 13:15 (UTC), BTC recorded a short-term return of -0.45%, with a price range of 72526.3 to 72935.7 USDT, and the 15-minute swing amplitude was 0.56%. Overall market attention remains at a high level. Volatility is not extremely elevated, but downward pressure is clear, and disagreement between long and short positions in the short term has intensified.
The main driving force behind this abnormal move is active sell pressure in the spot market. During this period, the combined total trading volume of the spot market and perpetual futures increased month-over-month by about 12%. Order book data shows a slight rise in resting sell orders, faster cancellations of buy orders, and short-term liquidity tightening, triggering
GateNews3h ago
