Bitcoin Cycle Far From Over — Here's What's Happening | Bitcoinist.com

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure Bitcoin prices continue to consolidate within the $95,000 zone following the pullback in the latter part of the past week. The premier cryptocurrency is experiencing a bullish January performance marked by a net gain of 11.42% since the new year commenced However, the effects of the extended price correction from Q4 2025 linger. Using recent on-chain data, a market analyst with the username MorenoDV_ has identified certain holder cohorts who are still experiencing extreme psychological stress that could impact future price trajectory.

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In a QuickTake post on January 17, MorenoDV_ postulates that the Bitcoin bull cycle remains on despite the negative events of Q4 2025. Notably, the crypto market leader experienced a heavy 33% price correction after hitting its current all-time high ($126,198) in early October.

Although Bitcoin has recorded some modest price recovery in the past month, significant expectations of a bear market remain, driven by a diminished market demand and failure to reclaim key technical levels such as the 365-day MA. Using the data from the Realized Price by UTXO Age Bands, MorenoDV explains that the Bitcoin market is actively redistributing risk. This positive development counters the bearish narrative of a market cycle ending.

Source: CryptoQuantWith the present spot price around $95,583, the CryptoQuant metric shows that psychological stress is unevenly distributed among Bitcoin holders. Notably, short-term holders, i.e., 1w-1m and 1m-3m cohorts, have realized prices, i.e., $89,255 and $93,504, respectively, below the spot price. This data suggests that these classes of investors are in profit and are experiencing low market pressure, which helps keep fear at bay.

However, mid-term holders of 3m-6m and long-term holders of 6m-12m have realized prices of $114,808, and $100,748 both of which are significantly above the present spot price. However, both holder cohorts have chosen to bear the discomfort by absorbing losses rather than initiating an aggressive redistribution

Therefore, as the spot price rises towards the realized price levels of these stressed cohorts, losses are expected to significantly reduce, eventually easing these pressures on these classes of holders and balancing the market risk This market development only occurs if the 3m-6m and 6m-12m continue to interpret the present market drawdown as a mere cyclical discomfort rather than a change in market structure. Therefore, there is a need for a sustained bullish narrative and constructive price behavior to keep these investors from seeking a market exit.

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At press time, Bitcoin trades at $95,265, reflecting a modest 5.3% gain in the last week

BTC trading at $95,121 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on Tradingview.comFeatured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.