Recent developments in US regulations are expected to usher in a period of rapid growth for blockchain technology applications by 2026, including countries holding Bitcoin reserves and the trend of banks transitioning to digital financial infrastructure via tokens. This is the outlook presented in the latest report by the cryptocurrency banking group Sygnum.
According to Sygnum, the anticipated passage of the CLARITY Act and the potential approval of the Bitcoin Act will create the necessary legal framework that countries have long awaited. The report states that clearer regulations in the US will help strengthen trust in Bitcoin as a reserve asset globally, and forecasts that at least three G20 economies or equivalent will officially add Bitcoin to their national reserves.
Bitcoin’s economic model favors pioneering nations, which drives the urgency to establish national Bitcoin reserves before other countries join, to capitalize on lower prices.
“When competition among nations emerges, diversification of reserves will become a strategic race, rather than just theoretical debates,” the report emphasizes.
Which countries will lead the way?
Sygnum predicts that pragmatic financial policy countries facing serious currency challenges—such as Brazil, Japan, Germany, Hong Kong, and Poland—will be potential candidates for adopting Bitcoin into their national reserves.
Notably, Brazil’s House of Representatives held a hearing on the proposal for a national Bitcoin reserve in August 2025. In Hong Kong, lawmakers also proposed adding Bitcoin to the national reserve in December 2024.
In Japan, legislator Satoshi Hamade proposed that the government convert part of its foreign exchange reserves into Bitcoin in December 2024, inspired by the US establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
In Germany, the largest opposition party—Alternative for Germany (AfD)—officially petitioned the Bundestag in October 2025, opposing tighter regulation of Bitcoin and calling for the consideration of establishing a national Bitcoin reserve.
In Poland, presidential candidate Sławomir Mentzen pledged to build a strategic Bitcoin reserve if elected in 2025, aiming to turn the country into a “cryptocurrency paradise” through friendly regulations and supportive banking policies. However, he did not win the election.
The report predicts initial allocations will be modest, around 1% of total national reserves, but the “signal effect” of this move will have far-reaching impacts.
In the long term, widespread adoption of Bitcoin by nations could help narrow the gap between this digital currency and gold, increasing its market capitalization share from the current 6% to 25%. Sygnum estimates this could push Bitcoin’s price to approximately $350,000 to $400,000 USD.
However, according to Mr. Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder of the blockchain oracle company Redstone, this process will be more complex than optimistic forecasts suggest. He states: “The circulating supply of Bitcoin has decreased by about 30% over the past 18 months due to ETFs and government absorption of new issuance, but most of this is due to institutional accumulation, not national treasuries.”
He adds: “In 2026, the trend will be more subdued compared to media headlines. Many US states and cities will experiment with Bitcoin reserves, rather than G20 nations.”
The adoption of Bitcoin by countries will still face significant political hurdles, including pressure from the (IMF) on Brazil.
The shift of traditional finance to blockchain infrastructure
In addition to national adoption, Sygnum also predicts that traditional financial institutions are getting closer to integrating blockchain infrastructure into core operations. The company forecasts that tokenization will become the dominant trend by 2026, with up to 10% of new bond issuance by major organizations being tokenized from the outset, according to Mr. Mathias Imbach, co-founder and CEO of Sygnum Group.
He states: “The full transition will take at least five years, but strategic decisions shaping this future have already been made.”
Tokenized bonds could be traded at higher prices due to faster settlement speeds and improved collateral efficiency, motivating pioneering entities.
Total value of RWA tokenized by asset type | Source: RWA.xyz According to data from RWA.xyz, companies have tokenized $1.1 billion USD in corporate bonds, accounting for 5.2% of the total $21 billion USD of tokenized assets.
Tokenized bonds are part of the emerging real-world asset tokenization (RWA) sector, enabling the digitization of financial and tangible assets on an immutable blockchain ledger, reducing costs and expanding access and trading opportunities for global investors.
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