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Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have been fluctuating, and Bitcoin falls below $74,000

The Strait of Hormuz blockade triggers a major shock in the crypto market: after Bitcoin first breaks above $78,000, it then falls back to $74,000, and the market remains in panic. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the transmission mechanism between geopolitical shocks and crypto market price action.

Crypto Jack Warns Bitcoin May Drop to $48K Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Crypto trader Crypto Jack warns investors to sell Bitcoin, predicting a decline to $48,000 amidst US-Iran tensions and negative financial signals, before a potential recovery in May based on seasonal trends.

Bitcoin’s fourth halving rally is slowing down, analysts say: BTC may have entered a “new normal”

Investment firm Galaxy analyst Alex Thorn noted that Bitcoin’s advance during this halving cycle has been lower than historical records, with volatility declining, and the market may be entering a new normal. Compared with the past three halvings, the fourth time’s price change is no longer significant. While the passage of U.S. spot ETFs has catalyzed the rally, the market’s ongoing conditions still need to be watched closely.

ETH jumps 1.22% in 15 minutes: DeFi segment activity and trading volume surge resonate to drive the move

2026-04-20 07:15 to 07:30 (UTC), ETH’s short-term return reached +1.22%. The price range spanned from 2285.19 to 2332.62 USDT, with a 2.07% amplitude. During this period, market attention heated up, volatility noticeably intensified. On-chain transaction volume rose in tandem, and key mainstream on-chain activity indicators expanded significantly on a month-over-month basis. The primary driver of this deviation was an increase in transaction activity related to DeFi protocols, which boosted the share of on-chain Gas consumption. At the same time, total on-chain transaction volume saw a sharp surge in a short time. DeFi scenarios such as decentralized exchanges and lending protocols led to a direct surge in demand for ETH, driving funds to flow quickly into the market. In addition, the average Gas fees and Gas prices on the ETH network continued to climb in this window, further validating that high-frequency trading and active capital were accelerating into the market and strengthening short-term bullish sentiment. Second, on-chain data also showed an expansion in liquidity related to stablecoins and ERC20 assets, strengthening market buy-side power. Although historical large-wallets such as Wilcke still held a large amount of ETH after early March, this cycle did not trigger abnormal transfers or large-scale sell-offs. Meanwhile, the positioning structure of mainstream ETH did not show passive deleveraging or concentrated liquidation. Under the combined effects of multiple factors, global buy-side demand was amplified, and short-term ETH volatility was further elevated. Be alert to the risk of capital sustainability after a surge in high-frequency trading volume and Gas fees. If subsequent incremental buying is lacking or on-chain attention cools down, ETH may face short-term pullback pressure. Monitor changes in large-holder positions, any abnormal shifts in network fees, and liquidity volatility on the DeFi protocol chain. While there have been no signs of security incidents involving major contracts and protocols so far, short-term liquidity disturbances still need close observation. Keep monitoring fund flows and on-chain structure to stay informed about subsequent market changes.

Bitcoin Dominance Approaches 59.9% Resistance, Altseason Signals Emerge

Bitcoin dominance has reached 59.9%, nearing a key resistance level. If rejected, analysts predict a capital shift to altcoins, potentially leading to an "altseason," as past trends show this often initiates rallies in smaller assets.

BTC rises 0.58% in 15 minutes: whale large-capital transfers and derivatives defensive positioning drive spot buying

2026-04-20 06:30 to 2026-04-20 06:45 (UTC), the BTC price recorded a +0.58% return rate. The candlestick range was 74347.7 to 74898.0 USDT, with an amplitude of 0.74%. During this period, market attention increased because large orders and on-chain capital flow showed abnormal fluctuations, resulting in a higher overall volatility. The main driver behind this anomalous move is whale entities concentrating large withdrawals and transfers targeting exchanges. Over the past 24 hours, the total reached 3,824 BTC, directly reducing the exchange’s BTC liquidity and bringing increased buy pressure to the spot market. On-chain data shows that the value of large transfers per transaction exceeding 1 million US dollars rose significantly during this window. As exchange immediate liquidity contracted, it pushed the BTC price upward in the short term. In addition, the derivatives market’s positioning structure changed: total futures open interest (OI) fell, and some defensive options positions shifted toward spot buying, further strengthening upside momentum. Second, overall market liquidity remains in a fragile range. Order book data shows that large market buy orders were heavily concentrated, and buy-side depth increased noticeably. Meanwhile, in the same period, market Mempool activity and on-chain transaction fees were at low levels, and trading activity declined—making the impact of large single transfers and buy orders on price more pronounced. At the same time, leveraged funds leaving the derivatives market and options’ “maximum pain” strike price being below the spot price increased the spot market’s sensitivity to volatility. With multiple factors converging, the short-term upward price impulse was amplified. Currently, market liquidity risk is rising, and in the short term the price is dominated by large buy orders in the order book and on-chain whale liquidity. Traders should continue to monitor the direction of whale capital flows and changes in exchange reserves, and be alert to possible price pullbacks caused by capital returning. At the same time, the key support range (72,000–74,000 USDT), order book depth, and derivatives positioning structure remain the core monitoring indicators for near-term volatility. Investors should be mindful of the risks stemming from fragile short-term liquidity and keep an eye on more real-time market developments.