As the New Year approaches, Bitcoin’s price has yet to break through the key resistance level, and market sentiment has clearly shifted to caution. If Bitcoin cannot stabilize above $94,000 before New Year’s Eve, this largest global market cap cryptocurrency will end the year with a decline. Data shows that Bitcoin has declined approximately 5.7% in 2025, with the holiday period showing particularly flat performance, contrasting sharply with the continuously rising US stock market during the same period.
From the derivatives market perspective, Bitcoin’s short-term outlook remains defensive. Data from options analysis platform Leavitas indicates that the 25 Delta risk reversal for one-week options has been steadily declining, suggesting that traders’ demand for put options and downside protection is increasing. More notably, the overall risk reversal for maturities from one week to one year is negative, reflecting that institutional funds are more inclined to hedge risks rather than bet on a breakout in Bitcoin’s price. For market sentiment to improve significantly, this indicator needs to at least return to around zero.
Singapore-based cryptocurrency trading platform QCP Capital pointed out that after the December 26 expiry of options, the open interest in Bitcoin contracts decreased sharply by about 50%, with reduced liquidity leading to a general wait-and-see stance among funds. In the short term, Bitcoin’s directional trend may only become clearer after liquidity recovers in January.
Demand at the institutional level is also weakening. By the end of 2025, there was approximately $5.5 billion in net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking the highest outflow since the product was launched. However, this phenomenon is more due to hedge funds closing positions after basis trading yields dropped from 10% to 5%, rather than a long-term bearish outlook. In fact, the cumulative net inflow of ETFs has only fallen about 9% from its October high, indicating that long-term allocation funds still maintain some confidence.
From a price structure perspective, Bitcoin has been oscillating below $90,000 since mid-December, with the $94,000 level forming a clear resistance. Before the MSCI index review results are announced and institutional funds re-enter the market, Bitcoin is likely to continue its consolidation within this range. Traders are adopting a defensive stance, which has also become the mainstream strategy during the year-end period.
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