Bitcoin may usher in its rare fourth year of decline, as the shadow of "Crash October" still lingers.

As the market continues to be sluggish, Bitcoin is facing an unusual situation. The latest data shows that Bitcoin’s current price has fallen below its opening price at the beginning of the year, which means it may experience its fourth annual decline since inception. Previously, Bitcoin only experienced annual declines in 2014, 2018, and 2022, and all three years are considered typical bear market cycles.

Unlike in the past, the market environment in 2025 does not fully exhibit traditional bear market characteristics, which also raises questions among investors about the current trend. Analysts generally focus on the dramatic event on October 10th, dubbed “Black October.” On that day, the crypto market experienced historically significant leverage liquidations, liquidity sharply contracted, and Bitcoin along with most altcoins plummeted simultaneously.

Several analysts believe that the October 10th event is a key turning point for the current market weakness. Some market opinions point out that although exchanges and market makers have stated that the system is functioning normally, the price action appears more driven by sustained institutional selling, raising concerns about market transparency and structural stability. Some investors have openly stated that this crash has had a profound psychological impact on the market, making participants re-aware of the ongoing risk of “rapid crashes” in the crypto space.

Meanwhile, liquidity issues remain unresolved. Market makers are becoming more cautious in risk control, and the altcoin sector has failed to form an effective rebound, declining in tandem with Bitcoin and lacking new capital inflows. Some analysts interpret this phenomenon as capital withdrawing from the entire crypto asset market rather than rotating between different coins.

However, there are differing opinions suggesting that October 10th was more like a large-scale deleveraging event. Supporters of this view point out that after the event, open interest in crypto derivatives markets significantly decreased, indicating that reliance on high-leverage trading is weakening. In the long term, reduced leverage levels could lay a more solid foundation for the next market rally.

Overall, Bitcoin still faces short-term pressure, and the impact of “Black October” has not fully dissipated. The market will next focus on whether prices can stabilize, whether liquidity improves, and whether Bitcoin can attract new capital inflows in a low-leverage environment. These factors will determine whether Bitcoin truly heads toward its rare fourth year of decline in history.