Standard Chartered Revises Multiyear Bitcoin Forecasts as $500K Horizon Extended

Standard Chartered reframed bitcoin’s trajectory as ETF demand eclipses halving dynamics, keeping a long-range path toward high valuations intact even after trimming forecasts, underscoring confidence that institutional flows can still propel the asset’s multiyear climb.

Standard Chartered Reframes Bitcoin’s Market Cycle

Standard Chartered has revised its bitcoin outlook, reflecting newly adjusted expectations for the halving cycle and the influence of exchange-traded fund (ETF)-driven demand. The update centered on reduced price targets and a reshaped view of market structure.

The bank’s analysts explained:

With the advent of ETF buying, we think the BTC halving cycle is no longer a relevant price driver.

“The logic in previous cycles (when US ETFs did not exist) – i.e., prices would peak about 18 months after each halving and decline thereafter – is no longer valid, in our view. However, it will take a break of the current all-time high (USD 126,000 on 6 October 2025) to prove that; we expect this to happen in H1-2026,” they added, as shared on social media platform X on Dec. 9 by Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at Vaneck. His post outlined the broader implications of the bank’s reassessment and reflected a shift in how institutional participants view long-standing bitcoin cycle patterns.

Read more: Yes, Bitcoin Is Down, but ‘the Sell-Off Is Over,’ Standard Chartered Says

Additional details conveyed in the shared analysis included cuts to the bank’s multiyear forecasts, with the 2025 target reduced from $200,000 to $100,000 and the 2026 forecast lowered from $300,000 to $150,000. Projections for 2027 and 2028 decreased from $400,000 to $225,000 and from $500,000 to $300,000.

The revisions mirror evolving participation from regulated investment products and changing liquidity conditions, even as long-term adoption narratives remain constructive. Broader market commentary continues to underscore that institutional inflows and ETF use may still support bitcoin’s structural trajectory despite near-term caution from traditional financial institutions.

FAQ ⏰

• What did Standard Chartered change in its bitcoin forecasts?

The bank cut its multiyear price targets for 2025 through 2030, reflecting a reassessment of market structure.

• Why does Standard Chartered believe the halving cycle matters less now?

Analysts say ETF-driven demand has overtaken halvings as a primary influence on bitcoin price behavior.

• When does the bank expect bitcoin to break its all-time high?

The outlook anticipates a move above $126,000 in the first half of 2026.

• How are ETFs shaping institutional bitcoin expectations?

Increased participation from regulated investment products is shifting how institutions model long-term cycle patterns.