Bernstein: Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Officially Ends, May Reach $1 Million Target Price by 2033

Bernstein, which manages approximately $800 billion in assets, has recently released a Bitcoin research report that has attracted significant market attention. The firm states that Bitcoin’s decade-long “four-year halving cycle” has officially come to an end, and a new long-term bull market phase, led by institutional capital, is taking shape.

According to report details shared by VanEck executive Matthew Sigel, Bernstein believes that Bitcoin’s current structural demand is being reshaped by institutional buying. Although Bitcoin’s price has recently pulled back nearly 30%, ETF outflows account for less than 5%, indicating that most institutional buyers view BTC as a strategic asset rather than a short-term trading tool. This sustained net ETF inflow is highly consistent with the long-term accumulation trend of major institutions and also reflects profound changes in Bitcoin’s market structure.

Based on this new framework, Bernstein has significantly raised its future price expectations for Bitcoin. The latest forecast suggests that Bitcoin could rise to $150,000 by 2026, reach $200,000 in 2027, while its long-term target price remains at $1 million by 2033. Analysts at the firm point out that more mature custody infrastructure, higher liquidity, and demand growth driven by state-level crypto legislation will be key drivers for Bitcoin entering higher valuation ranges.

Bernstein further states that with the expansion of institutional products, emotional selling by retail investors during market volatility is being absorbed by long-term buyers, thereby enhancing Bitcoin’s market resilience and reducing the magnitude of pullbacks. Compared to past cycles, this new model centered on institutional capital flows is more stable and harder to capture with traditional halving models. This means that Bitcoin’s future price rhythm may be completely different from the halving-driven fluctuations of the past.

The report also notes that Bitcoin is gradually developing the characteristic of “predictable sources of demand,” which will weaken the market dominance of halving events. As Bitcoin’s penetration in the global financial system increases, it is directly competing with traditional store-of-value assets such as gold and sovereign wealth funds. Analysts believe that if global economic turmoil persists, more and more capital may view Bitcoin as a “digital reserve asset.”

Bernstein concludes that Bitcoin is still in the early stages of its adoption curve, and future growth will be increasingly driven by institutional allocation. With the establishment of this new cycle, Bitcoin is moving toward a more mature and structurally supported long-term bull market.