Avalanche (AVAX) is currently hovering around the $14.00 mark on Thursday, after two consecutive days of recovery. However, open interest (OI) in AVAX futures contracts remains largely flat below $600 million, reflecting continued investor caution.
According to technical analysis, AVAX is showing signs of leaning towards an uptrend, as indicators suggest that market momentum is gradually shifting after breaking through a key resistance line.
Avalanche lacks interest from retail investors
Avalanche continues to struggle to regain attention from retail investors after a sharp drop on October 10, when open interest (OI) in AVAX futures plunged from $1.45 billion to $645.54 million. As of now, AVAX OI stands at $592.81 million, slightly up from $562.17 million the previous day, indicating that investors remain cautious, mostly “watching and waiting.”
Open interest (OI) in AVAX futures contracts | Source: Coinglass
However, Bitwise’s plan to launch an Avalanche ETF could become a new catalyst if approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), potentially driving demand for AVAX in the near future.
Technical outlook: Will AVAX continue its breakout momentum?
Avalanche (AVAX) has just broken through a short-term resistance trendline formed by the highs of October 13 and November 11 on the daily chart, following two consecutive sessions of recovery. If AVAX maintains its upward momentum and surpasses Friday’s high at $14.77, the price could target the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $17.14.
AVAX/USDT daily chart | Source: TradingView
According to the Supertrend indicator, breaking above $15.89 will confirm the start of a new uptrend. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 46 on the daily chart, continuing to reflect a recovery from oversold territory as selling pressure eases. At the same time, the steady increase in RSI during the formation of a double bottom around the November 21 low at $12.57 signals a bullish divergence.
Additionally, the MACD indicator also reinforces this view as the MACD line (green) and the signal line (red) are trending above the 0 line, along with green histogram bars, indicating that bullish momentum still outweighs current bearish pressure.
Conversely, if AVAX fails to break through the $14.77 resistance, the price risks returning to the November 21 low at $12.57.
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