Gate Daily (December 4): US ADP "miss triggers" boost expectations for rate cuts; SEC warns multiple ETFs over leverage out of control

Bitcoin (BTC) continues its rebound, temporarily trading around $93,570 on December 4. The US job market unexpectedly weakened, fueling investor optimism for rate cuts. The SEC sent warning letters to several ETF providers, halting applications for leveraged ETFs with exposure to underlying assets exceeding 200%. The UK has clarified that digital assets are considered property, with the relevant bill approved and officially in effect.

Macro Events & Crypto Hot Topics

1. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sent warning letters to several ETF providers, suspending applications for leveraged ETFs with exposure to underlying assets exceeding 200%. ETF issuers Direxion, ProShares, and Tidal received the letters, citing provisions from the Investment Company Act of 1940. The regulation stipulates that the risk exposure cap for investment funds is 200% of their risk value, which is defined by a “reference investment portfolio” comprised of unleveraged underlying assets or benchmark indices.

2. A UK bill clarifying that digital assets (such as cryptocurrencies and stablecoins) are considered property received royal assent and officially took effect on Tuesday. Supporters say the bill will better protect cryptocurrency users. King Charles approved the “Property (Digital Assets, etc.) Act,” which explicitly states that “things that are essentially digital or electronic” do not fall outside the category of personal property simply because they do not fit the legal definitions of tangible or intangible property. English common law already regards digital assets as property, but the bill seeks to codify recommendations from the Law Commission of England and Wales in 2024, specifically classifying cryptocurrencies as a new form of personal property for clarity.

3. Payroll processor ADP’s report showed private sector hiring unexpectedly dropped by about 32,000 in November. The weakening job market is fueling investor optimism for rate cuts. CME’s Fed Watch tool indicates that interest rate futures are pricing in nearly a 90% probability of a rate cut this month. However, expectations of rate cuts are also weighing on the US dollar. The dollar index has fallen for eight consecutive trading days, marking the longest losing streak since July 2020.

News Updates

1. IREN completed a $3.6 billion refinancing plan, including a $1.6 billion private placement and $2 billion convertible bond issuance

2. “Big Brother Machi” Jeff Huang opened new ZEC long positions, with total unrealized gains exceeding $2 million

3. Solana Mobile will launch the SKR token in January 2026, with 30% allocated for airdrops

4. Tom Lee purchased another $150 million in Ethereum

5. Ethereum mainnet successfully launched the Fusaka upgrade, greatly enhancing data processing capabilities

6. Stablecoin application Fin completed a $17 million funding round, led by Pantera Capital

7. US SEC Chairman: Bitcoin market structure bill is about to pass

8. US SEC Chairman: SEC needs to continue advancing tokenization

9. Franklin Templeton announced its Solana ETF is now live

Market Trends

1. Latest Bitcoin news: $BTC continues its rebound, temporarily trading around $93,570. In the past 24 hours, $148 million in positions were liquidated, mainly shorts;

2. US stock markets closed higher on December 3, with the latest economic data showing a cooling US job market, deepening expectations for a Fed rate cut next week. Small caps were notably boosted, while Microsoft’s decline temporarily weighed on gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 408.44 points, or 0.9%, to 47,882.90; the S&P 500 Index gained 20.35 points, or 0.3%, to 6,849.72; the Nasdaq Composite rose 40.42 points, or 0.2%, to 23,454.09. The Russell 2000 small-cap index rose 1.9%, leading major indices.

(Source: Gate)

3. On the Gate BTC/USDT liquidation map, with the current price at 93,056.20 USDT, if the price drops to around $91,898, cumulative long liquidations will exceed $269 million; if the price rises to around $94,743, cumulative short liquidations will exceed $535 million. Short liquidation amounts are significantly higher than long, so it is advisable to manage leverage ratios reasonably to avoid triggering large-scale liquidations during market fluctuations.

(Source: Coinglass)

4. In the past 24 hours, spot BTC inflows were $2.90 billion, outflows were $2.86 billion, with a net outflow of $40 million.

(Source: Coinglass)

5. In the past 24 hours, contract trading net outflows led by $ETH, $BTC, $SOL, $DOGE, $ADA , etc., indicating trading opportunities.

X KOL Selected Opinions

Phyrex Ni (@Phyrex_Ni): “Fatigue, really very tired. I had a lot to write today, but almost none of it got done, and I have the same schedule tomorrow. I was out all day, physically and mentally exhausted, mainly because there’s still so much left unwritten. I can’t even stay up late anymore—actually fell asleep sitting on the toilet. I can only try to get up earlier tomorrow and write more.”

“Some data was released today. The September data is basically meaningless at this point—it’s all pre-shutdown data. The most important should be ADP’s small non-farm data, which is really astonishing. The previous value was adjusted from 42,000 jobs to 47,000, but the latest figure announced is a negative 32,000. The US employment situation isn’t looking good, and after the data came out, CME’s probability for a Fed rate cut in December rose to 89%. The good thing is that the unemployment rate is now somewhat anticipated—everyone knows the job market is tough, and rising unemployment is being used by investors to bet on a higher probability of Fed rate cuts. At least that’s how it looks right now.”

“Back to Bitcoin’s data, although the turnover rate has increased slightly, it’s still mostly short-term investors, with little change among early investors. Today’s ADP data also increased expectations for a December rate cut. US stocks performed decently, and BTC is still driving overall market sentiment positively. URPD data also looks fine, support levels are pretty stable, and high-level loss investors haven’t exited en masse. The chip structure remains quite stable—the key is next week’s FOMC meeting.”

Today’s Preview

1. Eurozone October retail sales (MoM), previous value: -0.1%

2. US initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted, thousands) for last week (up to 11/29), previous value: 216

3. US November global supply chain pressure index, previous value: -0.06