On Friday, the price of Bitcoin remained stable around $90,000, supported by short positions covering and dip buying. Market maker Flowdesk stated that these factors helped alleviate recent dumping pressure, leading to a more stable market performance. Meanwhile, traders are generally betting that the Fed may cut rates in December, a sentiment that is impacting multiple asset classes, including Crypto Assets.
Ethereum is slightly above 3000 dollars, showing some return of buy orders. However, compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum has endured greater selling pressure in the past month. Prediction platform Polymarket shows that traders believe the probability of Bitcoin maintaining a weekly high of 92,000 dollars by the end of November is 74%, while the probability of breaking above 96,000 dollars is in the single digits. The continuous outflow of ETFs still poses resistance to price increases, and traders expect that once Bitcoin rebounds to around 95,000 dollars, the supply pressure may increase again.
In the stock market, although futures rose slightly on Friday, major U.S. stock indices are expected to record a decline this month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both saw slight pullbacks in November, while the Nasdaq fell by 2%, which may end a seven-month streak of gains. The pullback of large tech stocks has become the main reason for the market pressure this month, as investors reassess whether AI-related companies can meet profit expectations in the short term.
On Friday morning, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange experienced a brief suspension due to a data center failure, affecting futures and options trading for commodities such as crude oil and gasoline. The market was closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and on Friday, it will close early, resulting in lower overall trading volume.
Looking ahead, Wall Street institutions have begun to release their market forecasts for 2026. Deutsche Bank expects the S&P 500 to reach 8000 points by the end of next year; HSBC and JPMorgan's target is around 7500 points. Gold is oscillating in the range of 4150 to 4170 USD, and analysts point out that its upward trend remains solid, benefiting from falling interest rates, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical risks.
On a macro level, inflation remains high, the labor market is weakening, and the credit risk of AI tech stocks is increasing, making the market outlook more complex. In terms of Bitcoin, the key support remains in the range of $80,000 to $82,000, with the trend continuing to be linked to the macro economy rather than driven by a single industry factor.
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