Cryptocurrency market rebounds across the board: US government shutdown ends, first batch of XRP ETFs about to be listed?

On November 10, 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced a comprehensive rebound, with Bitcoin surpassing the $106,000 mark. Ethereum and XRP surged by 7% and 10%, respectively. The total global cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 4.5% in a single day to $3.57 trillion. The primary trigger for this rally was the U.S. Senate’s 60-40 vote to end the government shutdown, clearing obstacles for federal agencies to restart, and simultaneously opening the door for cryptocurrency ETF approvals—initial XRP ETFs are expected to be listed and traded this week. The derivatives market responded strongly, with open Bitcoin contracts increasing by $700 million. Funding rates rose rapidly, indicating strong bullish sentiment. Technical analysis shows Bitcoin has successfully reclaimed the critical support level of the 50-week moving average.

Political Breakthroughs and Accelerated Regulatory Processes

Shutdown Ends, Clearing ETF Approval Hurdles. After SEC staff returned from unpaid leave, the backlog of ETF applications will enter a fast-track approval process. ETF expert Nate Geraci confirmed that the Canary Capital XRP ETF, submitted under the Securities Act of 1933, is set to launch on November 13. Similar products from issuers like Bitwise, 21Shares, and Franklin Templeton will follow. This concentrated listing is unprecedented in ETF history and could generate significant initial capital inflows.

DTCC Pre-Listing Confirmations Indicate Product Readiness. The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) website shows five XRP ETFs listed under “Active and Pre-Listed,” with codes XRPZ (Franklin), XRP (Bitwise), TOXR (21Shares), XRPC (Canary), and XRPL (CoinShares). This technical readiness typically means products can begin trading within 24 hours of approval, providing the market with a clear timetable.

Regulatory Gridlock Eases, Improving Market Sentiment. The 40-day shutdown not only delayed ETF approvals but also interrupted key economic data releases. Now, with the government back in operation, data such as October CPI and retail sales will be released this week, providing crucial information for the Federal Reserve’s December rate decision. This increased policy transparency significantly reduces risk premiums.

Market Structure and Capital Flows Analysis

Derivatives Market Shows Institutional Positioning. Bitcoin futures open interest increased by $700 million in one day, with institutional-led CME trading accounting for 35%. Notably, the put/call ratio in options markets decreased from 0.65 to 0.51, mainly driven by increased buying of call options rather than put option closing, indicating investors are increasing exposure to upside while maintaining downside protection.

Spot ETF Continues to Attract Funds. Despite increased volatility during the shutdown, Bitcoin spot ETFs maintained net inflows, with $420 million in new funds in the first week of November. This resilience suggests institutional investors view the price dip as a buying opportunity rather than a trend reversal. The world’s largest Bitcoin ETF, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBTC), has surpassed $30 billion in assets under management.

Altcoin Rotation Model Begins to Emerge. After Bitcoin broke through key resistance, capital started rotating into mainstream altcoins like Ethereum and XRP. Such rotations typically last 2-3 weeks, during which Bitcoin’s market share may decline by 3-5 percentage points. Historical data indicates that in similar rotation phases, altcoins can gain 1.5 to 2 times the percentage gains of Bitcoin.

Technical Breakthroughs and Key Level Confirmations

Bitcoin Weekly Support Confirmed. Successfully holding the 50-week moving average (around $98,000) has enabled Bitcoin to initiate a strong rebound. The current price has broken above the previous resistance at $105,000, with the next targets in the $112,000–$118,000 range. The weekly RSI has risen from 45 to 52, indicating improving momentum.

Ethereum Breaks Downtrend Channel. After breaking above the critical $3,500 level, Ethereum’s short-term technical outlook has turned positive. Although there is significant resistance between $3,600 and $3,800, increased trading volume could allow a direct challenge to the psychological $4,000 mark. Derivatives data show Ethereum futures funding rates have turned positive, with no signs of excessive leverage.

XRP Shows Strong Rebound Characteristics. Relative to Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP’s previous gains lagged, but the recent 10% rebound has brought it back to test the key technical level of $2.50. If the XRP ETF launches as scheduled, the price could push toward $3, which was the high point in 2024, potentially fueling further upside.

Macroeconomic Environment and Policy Outlook

Fed Policy Expectations Turn Moderately Dovish. The lack of economic data during the shutdown complicated rate decisions, but now the complete data set will help the Fed assess inflation trends. The futures market indicates a 72% probability of holding rates steady in December, up from 58%, supporting risk assets.

Reduced Fiscal Policy Uncertainty. Although current government funding is only a temporary measure, the bipartisan cooperation mechanisms embedded in the plan suggest that 2026 budget negotiations could proceed more smoothly. This political risk reduction encourages risk-taking, benefiting high-beta assets like cryptocurrencies.

Global Liquidity Environment Marginally Improves. During the shutdown, the Treasury General Account (TGA) drew down $210 billion in emergency funds, an act akin to quantitative easing. While normal appropriations are expected to resume, the Fed is likely to offset this through rate cuts, resulting in a net positive liquidity impact.

Conclusion

The end of the U.S. government shutdown and the opening of the crypto ETF approval gates are key catalysts for market turning points. Bitcoin breaking above $106,000 is not only a technical milestone but also a market vote of confidence in regulatory clarity and institutional adoption. Against the macro backdrop of accelerating integration between traditional finance and digital assets, the cryptocurrency market is entering a new phase of valuation reassessment. Investors should closely monitor initial ETF fund inflows and key technical support levels, as these signals will determine the sustainability and scope of this rally. Maintaining strategic resolve amid volatility and seizing rotation opportunities within the trend may represent the best investment approach during this phase.