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Market Analysis: Fake Strength to Induce Buying, Structure Not Yet Bullish, Maintain Bearish Outlook
Last night, it first fell then rebounded, essentially a capital reallocation and shakeout—clearing out weak hands while releasing a slightly bullish signal externally, inducing emotional entry and buying.
The market focus is mostly on Trump's Middle East actions, but the core point to recognize is: his primary goal is to stabilize the US stock market, not to endorse the crypto market. Moreover, the capital attributes and driving logic of US stocks and crypto markets are completely different; there is no necessary correlation of rising or falling together.
Technical perspective: Last night, it broke below 74,200, probing down to 73,800, completing a round of buy testing; then quickly recovered back above 74,200, seemingly continuing the upward channel.
But the key hidden risks have appeared:
Nighttime funding rates have been adjusted, and the bullish-bearish structure has changed
Combined with Friday’s time window, which is historically a high-risk period for capital “minefields”
Therefore, this rebound is more like a false strength to induce buying, not a trend reversal.
Trading Strategy
Stay firmly bearish, do not chase longs
Entry: Position around 75,000-75,500 to open short positions/add to existing shorts
Stop-loss: 76,200
Target: Watch for a break below 73,800 for confirmation
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