3.31 midday analysis:

Old Tets' remarks trigger a rebound, but the bearish dominance pattern remains unchanged

Bitcoin's weekly chart this week closed lower again, with the previous two bullish candles fully giving back the earlier large gains, indicating a clear overall downtrend.

On the daily chart, the price has closed below the lower boundary of the descending flag pattern for three consecutive days, confirming the breakdown. As previously predicted, after the breakdown, it did not immediately fall into a one-sided waterfall but first experienced a consolidation and rebound along the lower edge, which recent movements have fully validated. The rebound has now largely completed, and the daily chart has yet to re-enter the channel.

The only short-term variable still comes from related statements by Trump. Stimulated by the news, Bitcoin briefly surged back into the channel, but the larger downward trend has not reversed. In my opinion, the daily close still struggles to stay firmly above the channel, and it is likely to see a pattern of a three-day rally followed by a retreat.

The first resistance level above is 68,600, with a strong resistance at 72,000.

Looking at the CME four-hour cycle, there is a previous gap between 71,650 and 73,610 (CME quotes differ from exchange prices). The rebound on the 23rd reached a high of 71,860, entering the gap area but not fully filling it. This resistance is very clear, and the current rebound is likely to stop at this gap region.

Currently, do not blindly chase the rally. Trading strategies should focus on shorting at high levels or observing. The immediate support below is 64,000. If it breaks below 60,000, pay close attention to entry opportunities around 58,000.

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