Today's three major signals in the crypto market: BTC Fear & Greed Index drops to 11, ETH institutional buying surges, Powell suddenly turns dovish

On the last day of March, the crypto market has recovered from weekend panic. BTC rebounded to around 68,000, and ETH rose nearly 3%. But the Fear & Greed Index is still at 11—the lowest level since the 2022 bear market. With market sentiment so bad, it’s actually worth taking a serious look at what exactly happened today.
Last night, Powell spoke at Harvard, and his tone was much softer than during the March FOMC meeting. Last time, he gave the market a "dovish pause," keeping rates steady but with seven members signaling no cuts this year, causing BTC to crash from over 70,000. This time, he changed his tone, saying "not in a rush to tighten," with short-term oil price shocks as temporary impacts, and no rate hike pause fully locked in. The market immediately responded, with US stocks and gold rising together, and rate cut expectations re-priced to 68%. For crypto, this is a real short-term positive.
In March, BTC ETF net inflows reached $1.13 billion, ending four months of outflows. BlackRock’s Larry Fink is rumored to be planning big moves with crypto ETFs, and Bernstein’s year-end target price still sits at 150,000 to 200,000. But there are conflicting signals—another $296 million flowed out in the past week, with on-chain whale transfers to exchanges spiking to 0.79, the highest this year. Big money is entering, large holders are selling, and both bulls and bears are betting heavily.
ETH is even more lively. Bitmine spent another $340 million today to buy 167,000 ETH for staking, bringing total staked ETH to over 3.31 million, worth $6.7 billion. The Pectra upgrade schedule is confirmed, focusing on blob expansion and lowering L2 costs. Fidelity and Franklin Templeton are both pushing ETH staking ETFs. Institutional interest in ETH is visibly heating up, which is the main reason ETH outperformed BTC today.
U.S. policy actions are also underway. Senator Lummis proposed the "Mined in America Act," aiming to keep mining within the U.S. and gradually phase out mining equipment related to "foreign competitors." The Department of Labor is pushing rules to allow 401(k) plans to include Bitcoin. Square has enabled Bitcoin payments by default for millions of U.S. merchants. Regulatory sentiment has shifted from "crackdown" to "regulation," which is a long-term positive.
Market itself: BTC is stuck between 65,000 and 69,000, with 69,947 being a dense liquidation zone for shorts, with $1.36 billion in short positions waiting to be wiped out; below, 63,377 also has over $1.26 billion in open shorts. This level is a powder keg—any breakout could cause intense volatility. ETH rose from $1,936 last night to $2,073, a 7% rebound, but the resistance zone at 2,065–2,070 has just been broken, and it remains to be seen if it can hold.
Next, focus on three things: April 2nd, when U.S. tariffs will be implemented, directly impacting risk appetite; who will succeed Powell after May, as the new chair’s policy stance will determine liquidity in the second half of the year; whether BTC can hold the 65,000 level—holding it means building momentum, losing it could see a dip toward 62,000.
Fear & Greed Index at 11. The saying "others are fearful, I am greedy" is old, but the logic is sound—provided you know what you’re buying and can withstand volatility.
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