Decisive Non-Farm Battle! White House officials intensively "give a heads-up": 50,000 new cases may be normal
BlockBeats News, February 11 — Due to a temporary suspension by some government departments, the U.S. January non-farm payroll report, originally scheduled for release last Friday, has been postponed to this Wednesday. Previously, several “secondary” employment indicators showed weakness, raising concerns in the market about a slowdown in employment growth.
Data shows that January ADP employment growth was weak, and Challenger layoffs increased significantly; the four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims rose as of the end of January; December JOLTS job openings fell to their lowest level in nearly five years. However, the ISM manufacturing and services employment indices performed relatively steadily, somewhat easing pessimistic expectations.
Ahead of the non-farm payroll release, White House officials have been actively guiding market expectations. White House senior trade advisor Peter Navarro stated that the market should “significantly lower” its expectations for monthly employment data, believing that in the current context of deporting illegal immigrants and shrinking labor force, an employment increase of about 50,000 per month can be considered “stable,” and should no longer be compared to the six-figure increases during Biden’s administration.
Kevin Hasset, director of the White House National Economic Council, also said that employment data might appear weaker due to a decline in the labor force, but this is not inconsistent with strong GDP growth and productivity improvements, and the market should not panic excessively.
Additionally, the final revision of the 2025 employment baseline data is also noteworthy. Preliminary data previously showed employment figures revised downward by nearly one million, causing market volatility. As non-farm data approaches, the market’s judgment on the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the true strength of the employment market may face a critical test.
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