$BTC

Are you ready for the big transformation? (The Great Rotation)"

By: On-Chain Mind
Translated by

The writer begins by noting that gold and silver prices are rising strongly, while "Bitcoin seems to be lagging behind. However, he points out that looking at prices only can be misleading, because what is important is the "risk-adjusted return" (Risk-adjusted Return), not just the price rise.

- The general essence of the idea:
When prices rise sharply, investors tend to believe that assets have become "safe," when in reality they may only be "common." The article seeks to answer a question:
Are precious metals really low-risk, or are they simply going through a popular buying mania?

- The New Cold War on Resources:
Over the past year, major global powers have begun hoarding gold and silver as strategic assets for national security.
- The United States of America has included silver in the list of vital minerals and has started buying large quantities of it.
- China responded by banning the export of silver, only to keep it for use in advanced industries such as solar panels, chips and artificial intelligence devices.

The result: silver and gold are no longer just financial commodities, but strategic resources, leading to huge price jumps due to lack of liquidity and supply.

- When safe havens become dangerous:
The writer uses the Sharp ratio (Sharpe Ratio) to assess the return on risk.
- Silver is now at its highest rate since the 1980s, meaning that its current price rise is exaggerated compared to its risks.
- Gold is in a similar situation, with indications of a convergence of the 1980 and 2011 peaks, which were the two periods that witnessed two major bubbles followed by a harsh correction.

These signals indicate that we are in a "high risk" phase even though most people only see prices rising.

- Staying away from real value:
The author highlights that gold and silver are now trading very far from their 200-week moving average.
- Silver, for example, has exceeded this average by about 3.8 times, a deviation that has never happened before.
- Gold is also at its highest deviation since 1980, a period of monetary chaos and suffocating inflation.

He points out that minerals are not tools for building wealth in the long run, but tools for maintaining it. When they turn into quick speculation, it means that the risk is high.

- An unnoticeable reversal in opportunities:
Most investors are now chasing assets that are rising, while ignoring what is undervalued.
- Silver and gold are now in almost 100% risk zone according to the "Logarithmic Risk" indicator used by the author.
- In contrast, Bitcoin is still in a low risk zone (حوالي 30%) i.e., from a statistical perspective it is currently more attractive than the metals that everyone is chasing.

The bottom line: Markets have reached a paradoxical point — everything people love right now is high-risk, and whatever they worry about (مثل البيتكوين) may represent a real opportunity.

- Vision Summary:
- Gold and silver are in a bubble state driven by fear and speculation.
- Bitcoin, despite its current weakness, is in a low-risk phase and may offer a better return in the medium term.
- Markets are driven more by psychology than logic, and now may be a time to look for forgotten assets rather than chasing "safe" assets that have become overly popular.

$BTC $XRP #GoldBreaks$5,500