On January 18, 2026, 10:40 (UTC+8), BTC is quoted at approximately $95,242 USD, with intra-day narrow fluctuations, leaning towards a correction expectation. The key points are the support at $94,100-$94,600 USD and resistance at $95,700-$97,000 USD, with a focus on the breakthrough and volume confirmation.

1. Core Market and Key Levels

- Daily Chart: Near the lower boundary of the upward channel, with the M20 moving average (around $91,760 USD) serving as strong support; above, around $97,000 USD, there is Fibonacci 0.382 resonance resistance, with multiple attempts to rise and fall back, indicating insufficient upward momentum.
- 4-Hour Chart: Repeated tests of the lower boundary and midline of the channel, with short-term key support at $94,100-$94,600 USD; resistance at $95,700-$96,500 USD, with weak volume, MACD showing signs of weakening, caution needed for potential pullback after rally.
- 1-Hour Chart: Range-bound oscillation, support at $94,550 USD (intraday low), resistance at $95,640 USD (intraday high), RSI neutral, no clear direction.

2. Indicators and Volume

- Indicators: Daily RSI neutral, risk of overbought conditions easing; 4-hour MACD shows divergence concerns, RSI not strengthening, bullish momentum waning.
- Volume: 24-hour trading volume approximately $20.17 billion USD, shrinking compared to previous periods; rebound lacks volume, breakout unlikely to sustain, prone to quick pullback.
- Market Funds: Perpetual futures funding rates are low, retail investors are cautious, institutional ETF inflows are limited, market sentiment remains cautious.

3. Actionable Strategies

- Long Positions: Only consider light long positions when support at $94,100-$94,600 USD is confirmed with volume stabilization; stop-loss below $93,800 USD; target $95,700-$96,500 USD; break above $97,000 USD with volume confirmation; otherwise, take profits promptly.
- Short Positions: Consider light short positions on rebound to $95,700-$96,500 USD with weak volume and long upper shadows; stop-loss above $96,800 USD; target $94,500 USD; break below $94,100 USD with volume confirmation; further down to $91,760 USD (M20).
- Wait-and-See: In case of range-bound oscillation without clear signals, prioritize observation, avoid frequent trading, and wait for confirmed breakout or breakdown to follow the trend.

4. Risk Warning

- If volume increases and price breaks below $94,100 USD, a deep correction may begin, with a potential decline to $91,760 USD; if volume breaks above $97,000 USD, there is potential to challenge $98,000-$100,000 USD. Pay attention to volume and ETF fund flow changes.