After the sharp decline on 10·11, has the market truly recovered?😮

If you only look at the price, many people might think:
“Since it didn't continue to plummet, it should be considered a recovery, right?”
But if you shift your perspective from candlestick charts to liquidity, position structure, and derivatives pricing, the conclusion might be entirely the opposite—
The current crypto market resembles more a “liquidity recession period” rather than the eve of a new rebound.

1. The order book is telling you: It’s not bullish, but that no one is willing to buy
The first sign of trouble appeared in the order book depth of BTC perpetual contracts.
Since October, the buy and sell depth of BTC perpetuals has been continuously shrinking:

Previously, common buy orders were above $200 million

Now, it has been maintained at a range of $100–200 million

The long-short depth difference remains at a very low level

This is not a sign of bullish dominance, nor bearish dominance,
but rather—liquidity providers are disappearing.
True recovery should be accompanied by thicker buy orders and more active, proactive trading;
but the current order book state looks more like:

“Everyone is not in a rush to sell, but no one is willing to put real money on the line.”

2. Altcoin markets: Falling prices no longer attract bottom-fishing
If BTC can still hold on with “consensus,”
then the signals from altcoin markets are even more direct.

Futures open interest continues to decline

Trading volume shrinks in tandem

Prices drop, but there’s no corresponding increase in buying activity

This is a very typical state:
Decline ≠ cheap, but “no one wants to buy.”
When the market shifts from “panic bottom-fishing” to “cold storage,”
it often means that funds no longer believe in the short-term rebound narrative.

3. The options market: What are the real funds protecting against?
While spot and futures may still carry some emotional bias,
the options market tends to reflect more genuine judgment.
Currently, there are several very critical changes in the BTC options market:
1️⃣ BTC options open interest approaching 90%
This is significantly above the historical average,
indicating that market pricing power is highly concentrated among:

Institutions

Market makers

Hedge funds

Retail investors, at this stage, have almost no say.

2️⃣ Call options “look bullish,” but are essentially lottery tickets
Indeed, the number of call options still dominates,
but a closer look at the strike price distribution reveals:

A large concentration above $100,000

Very low premiums

More like low-cost tail bets

This is not confidence in a rally, but rather:
“Since it’s cheap, might as well buy a possibility.”

3️⃣ What’s truly drawing in funds are low-strike put options
The real concentration of funds is at:

$85,000 and below

Absorbing about 75% of options funds

Put premiums are noticeably high

This is not speculation; it’s defense.
The high cost of puts reflects:
Main players are buying insurance against downside risk, not betting on a breakout.

4. Stablecoin flows: The split between retail and institutions is now evident
Stablecoin data further confirms this structural split.
USDT: Still in exchanges

Exchange reserves have risen to a historical high

Speculators are still active in the market

More in a “waiting for opportunities” state

This is typical retail behavior:
Not selling, but also not daring to aggressively buy in.

USDC: Moving out

Exchange reserves are clearly decreasing in the short term

Regulatory-compliant institutions are actively reducing risk exposure

More inclined to exit or shift to low-risk assets

Behind this are completely different risk preferences.
👉 One is waiting for a bottom, the other is managing risk.

5. Conclusion: This is not accumulation, but a tug-of-war
Looking at these signals together, the conclusion becomes very clear:

Order book thinning → Liquidity retreat

Altcoin markets unresponsive → Risk appetite declining

Options market shifting downward → Main players are on defense

Stablecoin split → Institutions are retreating, retail is waiting

The market after 10·11 is not in a “bottoming out then rising” phase,
but more like a tug-of-war with ongoing liquidity drain and institutional wall-building.
Compared to the expectation of a breakout at $100,000,
whether $85,000 can be effectively defended is the real critical point to watch.
The market is not without opportunities,
but now it more resembles a game of patience and capital structure rather than an emotion-driven bull rush.
#btc