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Ethereum shows a bearish market signal after four months - what do analysts say?

Ethereum (ETH) is showing rare and concerning signals as November begins. However, analysts still have reasons to be optimistic, even with market sentiment not recovering since the sharp collapse on October 11.

What are these warning signals, and will Ethereum maintain its stability in November? The following analysis examines this in more detail.

Warning signs about Ethereum in November
The Delta Pressure Buy/Sell Indicator - a key indicator measuring the imbalance between buying and selling pressure - has turned negative for the first time in four months.

This indicator is calculated based on stock market trading data and reflects the balance between buying and selling forces. When it is positive, buying pressure dominates, often leading to rising prices. Conversely, when it turns negative, selling pressure takes over and may drive prices down.

Delta pressure buy/sell chart of Ethereum. Source: Alfractal.

Historically, when the buying/selling pressure drops below zero, the market usually faces one of two main scenarios.

Bearish scenario
In the first scenario, the market enters a prolonged downward trend, but only if the indicator remains extremely negative. For example, between February and April 2025, the indicator remained in the negative zone, causing Ethereum to lose more than 20% of its value in two months.

Recent observations also revealed selling activity that could further weaken the indicator. According to data from Lookonchain on platform X, one Ethereum investor sold 10,000 Ethereum ( worth $39.11 million ) at the end of October. They had purchased these tokens two months prior, incurring a loss of $7.5 million.

Moreover, the net flow data for exchange-traded funds (Spot ETF Net Inflow) showed a negative flow of $81 million on October 29.

A separate analysis conducted by BeInCrypto found that long-term Ethereum holders engaged in heavy selling in October - the largest sell-off since July - adding new downward pressure on prices.

Bullish Scenario
The second scenario suggests that the price of Ethereum may approach its lowest levels, especially if the selling pressure is temporary. The on-chain analytics platform "Alphratel" believes this could happen now, as some short-term retail investors appear to be exiting their positions.

Many blockchain data supports this view. Analyst Ali noted the withdrawal of 200,000 Ethereum, worth approximately 780 million dollars, from trading platforms between October 28 and 29. This led to trading platform balances dropping to a record low.

Ethereum exchange reserve chart. Source: CryptoQuant.

Ethereum's supply on exchanges is still reaching its all-time lows. Currently, only about 15 million Ethereum - which is 12% of the total supply - is available on centralized exchanges, according to the site Crypto-Gucci.eth.

The increasing volume of ETH being withdrawn from exchanges indicates growing long-term investor confidence in the coming months, regardless of the price correction we witnessed in October.

Both scenarios provide compelling data and arguments. This puts traders without active positions in a difficult position, as they may have to wait for additional confirmation of the price.

However, for those already exposed to ETH, protecting profits and managing risks has become essential, especially as price volatility continues to escalate.