The recent developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict over the past week are escalating continuously. The U.S. 82nd Airborne Division has canceled its rotation at the "Joint Readiness Training Center," the 82nd Combat Aviation Brigade, which typically relies on sea transport, has used air transport instead, and the blood supply reserves at U.S. military bases in the Middle East have increased by 500%. The largest U.S. Department of Defense overseas hospital—Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany—has suspended some civilian services. The last time this combination of actions occurred was on the eve of the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. Just at this moment of heightened tension, Trump suddenly posted that the U.S. and Iran had engaged in "very, very good and productive dialogue" and announced that the U.S. would pause military strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure for five days. In the early hours of March 27, Beijing time, Trump posted again that the pause would be extended until April 6. This objective fact contrasts with Trump's

A trader who successfully predicted Trump's election is betting that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will cease fire before 2027, investing $425,000, with the current ceasefire probability at 36%. In a social media post, the trader noted that consensus between Russia and the US to end the war is hard to stop. The US easing sanctions on Russian energy exports has sparked protests from Ukraine, and there are divisions within the European Union.

On March 12, PolyBeats detected two high-win-rate addresses betting on prediction markets that "the US and Iran will not cease fire before May," with a combined investment of $15,000 at a current price of 52.5¢. Meanwhile, Iran escalated attacks on Gulf shipping, causing a halt to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with analysts seeing no signs of de-escalation.

On March 9th, a prediction market platform showed that investors are betting that the US and Iran will not cease fire in April. Trump stated that he will jointly decide on military action with the Israeli Prime Minister, while Iran's Foreign Minister emphasized that there is no intention to cease fire at the moment and expressed distrust towards the US side.