Major Breakthrough in Quantum Computing: Shor Algorithm Optimization or a Threat to Bitcoin and Ethereum, 2032 Becomes a Key Timeline

Gate News message: According to a recent disclosure by Bitcoin security researcher Justin Drake, two studies on quantum computing and cryptography have achieved key breakthroughs that could reshape the security landscape for crypto assets. One of the papers, published by the Google Quantum AI team, makes it theoretically feasible to crack signatures based on the secp256k1 elliptic curve by optimizing the Shor algorithm. Under conditions of roughly 1000 logical qubits, and combined with a low circuit-depth design, future high-performance quantum computers could recover private keys within minutes, posing a potential threat to Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The other study comes from the startup Oratomic. Its team combines a neutral-atom quantum computing architecture and optimizes the physical layer, proposing that about 26,000 physical qubits are sufficient to complete the same cracking task, improving efficiency by roughly 40 times compared with earlier approaches. However, this path is slower in execution, and a single run may take around 10 days.

Justin Drake noted that these two results respectively optimize the quantum computing “logical layer” and the “physical layer.” When combined, they significantly lower the attack threshold. He expects that by 2032, quantum computers may have a 10% or higher probability of cracking some public keys. While the likelihood of mature cryptography-grade quantum computers (CRQC) before 2030 remains low, the industry has entered a stage where preparation must begin in advance.

From the technical details, the optimized Shor algorithm requires only about 100 million Toffoli gates, with a runtime of approximately 1000 seconds, and can be further compressed to a few minutes through parallel computation. Meanwhile, quantum computing architectures are showing a split between “fast-clock” and “slow-clock.” The former is suited for high-speed cracking, while the latter has advantages in cost and scalability.

It’s also worth noting that this kind of research has begun using zero-knowledge proofs to hide key details, suggesting that algorithm optimizations may gradually enter a constrained-disclosure phase. Although Bitcoin’s PoW is not impacted by the Grover algorithm in the short term, ECDSA and Schnorr signature mechanisms are becoming a focal point for potential risk.

In the current environment, research and development in post-quantum cryptography may be accelerated. For the crypto market, this is not only a matter of technological evolution—it also concerns the rebuilding of long-term security models.