4 U.S. Economic Events That Could Shake Bitcoin This Week

Bitcoin (BTC) enters a new week trading around $68,000, as a series of important economic data from the U.S. could reshape expectations for interest rate cuts and risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market.

The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index is currently at 8, reflecting “extreme fear” sentiment. At the same time, a busy schedule of speeches by Federal Reserve officials this week is expected to increase market volatility.

Preliminary PMI leads the early-week trend

The preliminary manufacturing and services PMI data released by S&P Global on Tuesday will provide the earliest insight into the U.S. economy’s health in March.

Among them, the services PMI — representing the majority of economic activity — if surpassing expectations, could cause the Fed to delay its rate cut plans, putting pressure on risk assets like BTC.

Conversely, a manufacturing PMI falling below 50 signals a recession, potentially prompting funds to shift into defensive positions across both stock and crypto markets.

Labor data remains a key focus

The initial unemployment claims report released on Thursday remains the most sensitive indicator of the U.S. labor market. Previously, the figure was 205,000 claims, below forecasts.

This time, the market expects the number to be around 211,000. If claims increase, the likelihood of the Fed easing policy soon will be reinforced — a factor that generally supports Bitcoin.

U.S. economic data released this week | Source: Trading Economics Conversely, if the figures continue to unexpectedly decline, the scenario of maintaining high interest rates for an extended period will be strengthened, putting pressure on digital assets.

Inflation pressure closes the trading week

On Friday, two important reports will be released: the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) revised and inflation expectations. These are key indicators the Fed closely monitors when setting monetary policy.

Rising inflation expectations could have a significant negative impact by weakening prospects for policy easing.

Additionally, U.S. crude oil inventory data released on Wednesday is another notable variable. A sharp decline in inventories typically drives oil prices higher, increasing inflationary pressures amid ongoing geopolitical risks.

Throughout March, BTC traded within the range of $62,000–$76,000. The upcoming movement — whether a breakout or a correction — will largely depend on how these macroeconomic data influence the Fed’s easing expectations.