Polymarket New Account Deposits Over $60,000 Betting on U.S. Military Entry into Iran by End of April

Gate News reports that on March 21, a new account on the prediction market Polymarket wagered $60,800 on the “Yes” option for the question “Will the U.S. military enter Iran before April 30?” currently, the probability of this event is 55%.

On March 17, Trump stated in an interview that he is “not afraid” to send ground troops and explicitly said he is different from previous presidents who promised never to send ground forces. Defense Secretary Hagel also clearly refused to rule out the possibility of deploying ground troops during a briefing at the Pentagon, emphasizing that the U.S. military is willing to take all necessary measures and that “we will never reveal the bottom line of our actions to the enemy or the media.”

As the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz pushes up global oil prices, analysts believe that if the U.S. military wants to forcibly open the strait, occupy Harek Island—which accounts for 90% of Iran’s oil exports—or control underground high-enriched uranium facilities, airstrikes alone will not achieve these goals; ground forces will be necessary. Multiple reports confirm that the Pentagon is preparing to deploy ground troops, including thousands of Marine Corps personnel heading to Middle Eastern waters aboard ships.

Although the military is preparing options, Trump personally stated on March 19-20 that there is no clear decision yet to deploy U.S. ground forces, and he made it clear that if troops are to be sent, “it will not be announced in advance.” Additionally, Trump has previously mentioned that relying on the current air and naval superiority is enough to destroy the opponent’s defenses, and deploying ground troops might be a waste of time. From a political perspective, a large-scale ground invasion could easily entangle the U.S. in a long-term war, contradicting his campaign promise to keep the U.S. away from new conflicts in the Middle East. Once crossing the threshold of ground combat, the U.S. would face enormous domestic public opinion and congressional scrutiny.