4 smart money addresses deposited $13,400 on Polymarket, betting that the US will not escort merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz this month

Gate News reports that on March 20, according to on-chain data monitoring, four smart money addresses on the prediction market Polymarket have collectively invested $13,400, betting on the “No” option for whether the U.S. will escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz (a critical global oil transit route) before March 31. Currently, the probability of “Yes” is 20%.

According to settlement rules, if the U.S. military or federal government officially announces, is in the process of, or has already escorted any commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz before March 31 Eastern Time, the market will settle as “Yes.” Escorting refers to U.S. military or government personnel providing escort or active protective surveillance for specific ships or fleets, without boarding the vessels, using independent warships or aerial assets.

The U.S. military has ordered the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit and the amphibious assault ship USS LPD-17 “San Antonio” to the Middle East, expected to arrive later this month. Former President Trump previously stated that if necessary, escort services would be provided for transit ships, but U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wray recently clarified in a public interview that the U.S. is currently “not fully prepared” to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

Note: Based on their past trading patterns, this trader does not necessarily bet on whether the event will actually occur; they may open a position and close it for profit or loss at a certain point in time.

Involved addresses: 0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708 0xbf961d0c79db0bf55050cadc0995835f09c09942 0x1b5655739e33491a3d831bcb51e2c74e0501715e 0x2120ea0323fcf5446233056467fdb852b4b12647