Solana Price at Risk of 15% Decline as Exchange Balances Surge

Over the past week, Solana (SOL) has surpassed the $91 mark, recording an impressive 11% increase. Investment flows into Solana’s ETF funds also reached $34 million in just the first half of March, matching the growth rate of February. At first glance, these are positive signals for this cryptocurrency.

However, a more detailed analysis reveals warning signs indicating that SOL could face a 15% decline, bringing the price down to $77.

Hidden Bearish Divergence: Indicating Continued Downtrend

Between March 4 and March 15, SOL’s price formed a hidden bearish divergence pattern. During this period, the price made lower highs and failed to retest previous highs. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI)—a momentum indicator ranging from 0 to 100—made higher highs.

A hidden bearish divergence occurs when the price declines but the momentum indicator rises, suggesting that the upward momentum is only temporary, while the true strength of the price is weakening. This often signals that the downtrend will continue rather than reverse.

Therefore, the recent rally above $91 may only be a temporary recovery and unlikely to be sustained long-term.

Solana Price Divergence | Source: TradingView Performance since early 2026 also supports this view, with SOL down 26% from the start of the year. This indicates that the 11% weekly gain might be just a short-term rebound within a longer-term downtrend.

Increasing Selling Pressure: Exchange Balances Rise

On-chain data also shows mounting selling pressure, reinforcing the bearish divergence signals.

Solana’s exchange reserves—representing the amount of SOL ready to be sold—have been steadily increasing since February 2. At that time, exchanges held 2,492,041 SOL. Currently, this number has risen to 2,782,033 SOL.

SOL Exchange Reserves Increase | Source: Glassnode The continuous rise in exchange reserves suggests investors are transferring SOL to exchanges in preparation to sell, rather than storing it in cold wallets for long-term holding. Even with an 11% price increase last week, reserves on exchanges continued to grow, reflecting profit-taking or panic selling by investors.

The HODL Waves indicator, which tracks holding periods among investor groups, also shows declining short-term confidence. Investors holding Solana for 1 to 2 years have reduced their holdings from 16.2% on March 4 to 15% now. These are experienced investors who have survived previous market cycles. Their reduced holdings are a concerning sign, indicating even strong believers are losing patience.

ETF Capital Flows Stable but Insufficient to Absorb Selling Pressure

Although ETF investments in Solana in March reached $34 million—matching February’s figures—this level is not enough to absorb the increasing selling pressure.

Solana Spot ETF | Source: SoSo Value While this growth indicates continued institutional interest, it has declined compared to peak months like December and January. At the current rate, ETF capital cannot offset the amount of SOL being transferred to exchanges for sale.

Key Price Levels: $94 and $87

Upcoming price levels will determine Solana’s next trend. To invalidate the bearish signals, SOL needs to close above $94 daily. Achieving this could allow bulls to regain control and trigger a new rally.

Conversely, if the price fails to hold current levels and drops below the $87 support, the next target for decline would be $77—about 15% below the current price.

The $77 level aligns with technical structures and is supported by factors such as rising exchange reserves, the distribution by seasoned investors, and the hidden bearish divergence signals. All these suggest that Solana’s downtrend is not over yet.

Conclusion

Although Solana experienced a significant increase last week, technical signals and on-chain data indicate this rally is likely temporary. Without breaking through key resistance levels, Solana risks a deeper correction in the near future.