Gate News reports that on March 11, in the prediction market Polymarket, a star account with a 67% probability in a political market continued to increase its position on the event “U.S.-Iran ceasefire in March,” with a total bet of $27,100. The average opening price was 31.2¢, and the current price is 30.5¢. The account address is 0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73.
Trump repeatedly stated in public speeches that the war would end, but today Iran continued to expand its strikes to Gulf Arab countries: Dubai and Bahrain sounded air raid alarms, Saudi Arabia reported shooting down two drones over the eastern oil-producing region, and Kuwait’s National Guard claimed to have shot down six drones.
Trump and Israel do not fully agree on the timing and conditions for ending the war. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said the war will end “when Israel and the U.S. decide,” but he refused to promise it will end soon. He also emphasized that Israel’s goal is to weaken Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities and create conditions for the Iranian people to have the opportunity to overthrow the current regime in the future.
Note: Based on this trader’s past trading profile, they are not betting on whether the event will actually happen, and may close positions for profit or loss at certain points after opening.
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