The weakest bear market in history! Bernstein firmly bullish: Bitcoin's 2026 target price is $150,000

In response to recent volatility and pullbacks in the cryptocurrency market, Wall Street investment bank Bernstein believes that investors are currently experiencing “Bitcoin’s weakest bear market in history.” The decline has not affected the fundamentals nor shaken the overall adoption trend and investment logic. The research team reiterates their long-term bullish stance on Bitcoin, maintaining a target price of $150,000 by the end of 2026.

Led by Gautam Chhugani, the analyst team states in their latest research report: “What we are experiencing is the weakest narrative of a Bitcoin bear market in its history.”

The analysts believe that this wave of Bitcoin decline is primarily driven by a “confidence crisis” among investors, caused by short-term market sentiment imbalance rather than systemic risk or structural collapse.

The report emphasizes that, looking back at past Bitcoin bear cycles, almost every one was triggered by clear catalysts such as major platform failures, cascading hidden leverage explosions, or systemic crashes. However, none of these “typical disaster scenarios” have occurred this time.

Conversely, the analysts note that the current cycle is supported by unprecedented structural factors, including a U.S. president who supports Bitcoin, a relatively friendly policy environment; the widespread adoption of Bitcoin spot ETFs; corporate inclusion of Bitcoin on balance sheets; and ongoing participation from large asset management firms, indicating that institutional investors have not exited the market.

Bernstein believes these factors make this correction fundamentally different from previous bear markets. The analysts highlight:

When all conditions are favorable, the Bitcoin community itself creates a confidence crisis. Nothing has happened—no bombs have exploded, no black-box manipulations have been uncovered—but the media are already writing Bitcoin obituaries.

Regarding recent concerns that Bitcoin has lagged behind gold, the analysts explain that in a high-interest, tightening financial environment, capital is indeed flowing more into gold and AI-related stocks. Currently, Bitcoin’s trading characteristics still lean toward being a “liquidity-sensitive risk asset,” and it has not yet fully transitioned into a mature safe-haven asset. However, as liquidity conditions improve, ETF channels will be able to quickly absorb capital.

On the claim that “AI is making Bitcoin irrelevant,” Bernstein holds a contrary view. They believe that with the rise of AI models like OpenAI, blockchain technology and programmable wallets are precisely the ideal tools for the future “agentic digital world.” In such an environment, autonomous software agents require a universal, machine-readable financial infrastructure, and blockchain is the best solution. In contrast, traditional banking systems are closed and difficult to integrate, making them less suitable for the demands of the AI era.

Regarding concerns that quantum computing might crack encryption algorithms, Bernstein admits that this is indeed a future threat faced by all digital systems—Bitcoin is no exception and not the only victim.

The analysts emphasize that from the financial system to government infrastructure, the transition to quantum-resistant cryptography will eventually occur. Moreover, Bitcoin’s open-source, transparent code, combined with the deep involvement of large, capital-rich institutions like Strategy, positions Bitcoin well for synchronized upgrades alongside mainstream systems.

As for worries about corporate debt accumulation and miners potentially being forced to sell, Bernstein considers these concerns overblown. The analysts point out that most large Bitcoin-holding companies have well-structured debt arrangements and are capable of withstanding prolonged periods of low prices. For example, Strategy stated in their earnings call that they do not need debt restructuring unless Bitcoin falls to $8,000 and remains there for five years.

Meanwhile, miners have successfully transitioned by redirecting electricity resources to support AI data centers, significantly alleviating the cost pressures associated with Bitcoin production.