January 19, XRP declined for the fifth consecutive day, breaking below the psychological $2 level and approaching the $1.85 support. Trump’s tariffs on 8 European countries (raised to 25% in June from 10%) combined with the US Senate Banking Committee’s market structure bill delay have dealt a double blow to the market. Despite short-term pressure, spot ETF demand remains strong, with a medium-term target of $3.0 and a long-term target of $3.66.
Trump Tariff Threat Sparks US-Europe Trade War Risks
On January 17, US President Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries including Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland. The tariff will take effect on February 1. Subsequently, as Trump pressures the EU to allow the US to acquire Greenland, the tariff will increase to 25% on June 1. Trump stated: “This tariff will remain in effect and must be paid until a full acquisition agreement for Greenland is reached.”
Reports indicate that the EU is preparing retaliatory measures, heightening concerns over a full-scale trade war. Coindesk reports: “The EU is preparing to impose tariffs and other restrictions totaling up to €93 billion on US companies in response to President Trump’s 10% tariff on Greenland.”
Notably, the Dow E-mini index fell 0.66% in Monday’s early trading on January 19. The Nasdaq 100 E-mini and S&P 500 E-mini indices declined 1.08% and 0.80%, respectively. XRP and the entire market still face tariff risks. Looking back to October 10, when Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China, XRP’s price plummeted from $2.8406 to $0.7773 (Binance), closing down 15.29% at $2.3756.
Trump Tariff Timeline and Escalation Path
February 1: 10% tariffs on goods from 8 European countries take effect
June 1: Tariffs increase to 25%
EU retaliation: Preparing to impose tariffs and restrictions up to €93 billion on US companies
Precondition: Trump demands a Greenland acquisition agreement before removing tariffs
This geopolitical tension has systemic impacts on the cryptocurrency market. The US-EU tariff risks and the delay of the market structure bill have dampened crypto market sentiment, causing XRP to break below the $2.0 psychological level. The news about XRP today reflects not only a technical adjustment of a single asset but also a collective retreat of global risk assets amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Market Structure Bill Delay Deals Major Blow to Regulatory Optimism
Despite the market’s reaction to the escalation of the US-EU trade war, another major bearish factor for XRP today stems from regulatory developments. Last week, Coinbase (COIN) withdrew support for the Senate Banking Committee’s draft Market Structure Bill. In response, the committee delayed voting on the bill, triggering a retreat in XRP. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong mentioned provisions related to stablecoin rewards, stating: “The proposed amendment would eliminate the reward mechanism for stablecoins, allowing banks to prohibit their competitors.”
Recent price movements highlight XRP’s sensitivity to legislative progress. After the Banking Committee announced a vote on the bill text scheduled for January 15, XRP rose from $1.8103 on December 31 to a high of $2.4151 on January 6. However, after the committee postponed the vote, XRP fell back to a low of $1.8502 on January 19. This price action clearly demonstrates the direct impact of regulatory expectations on XRP.
US banks warn that legislation allowing cryptocurrencies to use stablecoins as rewards could lead to over $6 trillion in deposits flowing out of US banking systems. The motivation behind US banks blocking stablecoin rewards—whether for competition or protection—remains debated. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart commented: “I don’t quite understand the banks’ argument. There are many high-yield savings accounts with yields of 3% or higher. Why would these high-yield accounts be under pressure from deposits with yields below 0.1%, but not from stablecoin yields?”
Although the voting has been delayed, market optimism about US lawmakers passing urgently needed crypto legislation supports XRP’s medium-term bullish outlook. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong’s withdrawal of support further boosts market sentiment, saying: “I am quite optimistic. I believe as long as we keep working hard, we can achieve the desired results. We will continue to actively participate and work together to ultimately reach our goals.”
XRP Technical Analysis: $1.85 as a Key Support and Resistance Level
(Source: Trading View)
On January 18, XRP dropped 3.4%, after a 0.27% decline the previous day, closing at $1.9915. The token faces selling pressure greater than the overall crypto market, which declined 1.60%. XRP has fallen for five consecutive days, breaking below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend. However, bullish fundamentals continue to offset technical downside, limiting further declines.
On the daily chart, if the price breaks above $2.0, the 50-day moving average will act as resistance. Continued breakout above the 50-day MA could signal a short-term trend reversal to the upside. A reversal would open the door to testing $2.2. After breaking $2.2, bulls could target the 200-day moving average. Notably, a break above the EMA line would reaffirm medium- to long-term bullish price targets.
[XRP]# Key Technical Levels for XRP
Support levels: $1.85, $1.75, $1.50
50-day moving average resistance: $2.0681
200-day moving average resistance: $2.3146
Resistance levels: $2.0, $2.5, $3.0, $3.66
The short- to medium-term outlook hinges on staying above $1.85. Positive fundamentals, including spot ETF demand and increased XRP utility, continue to offset bearish technical signals, indicating a potential rebound in the near term. The token rebounded from December’s low of $1.7712 and gained 6.25% in January, further strengthening its bullish structure and short- to medium-term price outlook.
Breaking above $2.0 would pave the way for an upward breakout of the trendline. Continued breakout above the trendline would confirm a bullish reversal and validate the bullish structure, supporting a medium-term (4-8 weeks) target of $3.0 and a long-term (8-12 weeks) target of $3.66. Conversely, if the price continues to break below the downward trendline, the bullish structure would be invalidated, signaling a reversal to a bearish trend.
( XRP Short-term Pressure, ETF Demand Provides Bottom Support
Most importantly, despite strong demand for XRP spot ETFs in January, XRP’s price still broke below the psychological $2 level. However, the medium-term outlook remains bullish. The strong demand for XRP spot ETFs, progress on the market structure bill, and increased XRP utility reaffirm a cautiously optimistic short-term outlook (1-4 weeks), with a target of $2.5.
Looking ahead, central bank comments and capital flows into XRP spot ETFs will influence near-term price prospects. Market expectations of a Fed rate cut in March and the Bank of Japan’s dovish neutral rate policy (around 1%-1.25%) will boost sentiment. Strong demand for XRP spot ETFs and positive crypto-related news from Congress will further reinforce this constructive trend.
Additionally, this week, the Agriculture Committee will release the draft of the market structure bill, scheduled for review and vote on January 27. This timing could be a key turning point for XRP’s subsequent developments. If the committee’s version of the bill is more favorable and passes smoothly, XRP could quickly recover lost ground. Conversely, further delays or contentious clauses could lead to increased selling pressure.
)# Main Downside Risks to XRP Bullish Outlook
· Bank of Japan’s hawkish neutral rate (around 1.5%-2.5%) triggers yen carry trade unwinding
· US economic indicators and Fed measures reduce expectations of rate cuts in early 2026
· US lawmakers block the market structure bill, delaying crypto legislation progress
XRP Spot ETF Reports Capital Outflows
These events could pressure market sentiment, causing XRP to break below $1.85, signaling a reversal of the bearish trend. If this support fails, the next key support is at $1.75, with deeper support near $1.50.
In summary, these scenarios support a medium-term (4-8 weeks) price rise to $3.0. Meanwhile, a Fed rate cut in March and Senate approval of the market structure bill would reaffirm a long-term (8-12 weeks) target of $3.66. Over the next 12 weeks, these events could push XRP to a new all-time high of $3.66 (Binance). Breaking above $3.66 could set a target of $5 in the next 6 to 12 months.
