XRP Price Prediction: High-level Pullback Meets Whale Activity, Is the $2 Level Facing a True Test?

XRP has experienced a sharp rally recently, followed by a significant correction, with market focus now on whether the key support level at $2 can hold. As the price cools down, on-chain whale trading activity has risen to a three-month high, adding more uncertainty to the short-term trend.

Currently, XRP is trading at $2.14, down about 5% in the past 24 hours. Despite short-term pressure, the token has gained 17% over the past 7 days and 3.6% over the past month, with fluctuations mainly between $1.83 and $2.39. Compared to the July high of $3.65, XRP has retraced about 41%, indicating that the overall recovery is still incomplete.

Trading and derivatives data reflect a cooling sentiment. The 24-hour spot trading volume for XRP has decreased by 34% to approximately $4.29 billion, suggesting that chasing the rally has temporarily subsided. Data from CoinGlass shows XRP derivatives trading volume has also fallen by 39% to $7.38 billion, with open interest decreasing by 6% to $4.15 billion. This simultaneous decline in volume and open interest typically indicates traders are closing positions after the rally rather than adding new ones.

Unlike retail investors who are becoming more cautious, large on-chain addresses are very active. Data from Santiment shows that on December 9, there were 2,802 whale transactions exceeding $100,000 on the XRP network, reaching a three-month high. Historical experience suggests such anomalies often accompany increased price volatility. Currently, about 83% of XRP holders are in profit, which increases short-term profit-taking pressure.

Changes in supply are also noteworthy. On January 5, Ripple unlocked and transferred approximately 300 million XRP tokens under its established escrow mechanism, worth about $652 million. Meanwhile, XRP reserves on exchanges have continued to decline, currently around 1.6 billion tokens, less than half of the previous high. Lower exchange reserves often amplify price swings during demand fluctuations.

From a technical perspective, XRP broke through the $2.10 to $2.15 range and entered a consolidation phase, which now acts as short-term support. If the daily chart can stay above $1.96, the bullish trend may continue; resistance is concentrated around $2.26, and a break above that could bring the $2.40 to $2.50 range back into view. If the price falls below $2, the correction target could be around $1.85 or even $1.66.

Overall, XRP is at a critical stage of the rally, with whale movements and the $2 support level being key variables for the short-term trend.