When evaluating the price trend of Ripple (XRP), the market often overemphasizes the price itself while overlooking a more forward-looking indicator—the XRP Rich List and its underlying ownership structure. From on-chain distribution data, there is a significant gap between XRP’s nominal circulating supply and the truly tradable supply, and this gap is profoundly affecting market supply and demand dynamics.
Firstly, XRP has recently experienced a notable correction, with the price dropping from a high of approximately $3.66 to around $1.85, a decline of nearly 50%. During the price decline, inflows of XRP into mainstream crypto exchanges increased significantly, with daily transfer volumes reaching between 35 million and 116 million tokens, indicating rising short-term selling pressure. However, at the same time, the total amount of XRP held by exchanges has continued to decrease, now approaching 1.5 billion tokens, reflecting that, in the long term, the available trading chips are diminishing.
More importantly, the ownership structure of XRP warrants attention. Data shows that over 6 million wallets hold 500 XRP or less, most of which belong to retail investors. The actual control of large supplies resides with a limited number of high-net-worth addresses, known as the XRP Rich List wallets. This means that although the total supply of XRP is large, the concentration is high, and the true liquidity is far lower than surface data suggests.
Additionally, XRP holdings and usage are subject to multiple protocol-level restrictions. Some tokens are locked due to account reserve requirements, network operational mechanisms, or functional purposes, preventing free circulation. This further compresses the effective supply in the market. Meanwhile, the entry cost for XRP has risen significantly; currently, purchasing 1,000 XRP costs about $1,750, compared to roughly $500 over a year ago, limiting retail investors’ ability to add positions during the correction.
Overall, limited holdings in small wallets, decreasing freely tradable XRP, and large supplies controlled by wealthy addresses are creating a potential supply-demand gap. Under this structure, once selling pressure eases and demand marginally rebounds, the XRP market could quickly shift from loose to tight. This is why, compared to short-term price fluctuations, the XRP Rich List and on-chain ownership distribution often reveal more about its long-term trend and potential turning points.
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