760 million USD whale stops! Pi Network breaks key support and may crash 20%

Pi Network faces a triple bearish squeeze: a whale holding 391 million tokens worth $76 million has stopped buying, 1.22 billion tokens will be unlocked in the next 12 months, and daily trading volume has shrunk to $21 million. On the technical side, Pi Network has broken below the double top neckline and the 50-week EMA, with RSI dropping to an oversold level of 23. The next key support level is at $0.1530.

1.2 Billion Tokens Unlock Sparks Largest Sell-off Concerns for Pi Network

The ongoing decline of Pi Network occurs against the backdrop of an accelerated token unlock mechanism releasing supply. Data shows that 111 million tokens will be unlocked this month, and 1.22 billion tokens over the next 12 months. This continuous supply pressure constitutes a structural bearish factor for Pi Network’s price.

Pi Network’s current fully diluted valuation (FDV) exceeds $19 billion, but the circulating market cap is only $1.6 billion, indicating that the vast majority of tokens are not yet in circulation. As the unlock mechanism continues, Pi Network’s circulating supply will keep increasing, while demand has not grown in tandem. This supply-demand imbalance is the fundamental reason for Pi Network’s price pressure.

Meanwhile, demand is decreasing, and more Pi Network tokens are being released into the market through the unlock mechanism. At current prices, the 1.22 billion tokens to be unlocked in the next 12 months are worth approximately $239 million. If these tokens flood into the secondary market, Pi Network’s price could face greater downward pressure. The key question is whether the Pi Network ecosystem can generate enough real demand during the unlock period to absorb this supply.

Historically, token unlocks are often accompanied by price declines. Pi Network is not the first project to face unlock pressure, but its problem lies in the relatively rapid unlock pace and immature ecosystem applications. If Pi Network cannot launch killer apps or establish a strong token burn mechanism in the short term, oversupply will continue to suppress the price.

3.91 Hundred Million Holders Whale Stops Buying, Sounding Alarm

The continued plunge of Pi Network’s cryptocurrency coincides with weakening whale buying activity. Data compiled by PiScan shows that a well-known whale, who has been actively accumulating Pi Network tokens for several months, has paused purchases. Five days ago, this whale made a small purchase of 19,976 tokens. Prior to that, he had been steadily increasing holdings, reaching a total of 391 million tokens. At the current price of $0.1960, these Pi Network tokens are worth over $76 million.

The change in whale behavior is a significant indicator for Pi Network’s price. Over the past few months, this whale’s consistent buying provided critical demand support, partially offsetting the selling pressure from token unlocks. However, the sudden halt in large-scale buying may suggest a loss of confidence in Pi Network’s short-term prospects or that the current price no longer appears attractive.

Even more concerning are the trading volume figures. Data from CMC shows that Pi Network’s daily trading volume is just over $21 million. Considering the fully diluted valuation exceeds $19 billion and the circulating market cap is $1.6 billion, this trading volume is negligible. Low liquidity means that in the event of panic selling, Pi Network’s price could experience more volatile swings.

Three Major Signs of Demand Shrinkage for Pi Network

Whale buying stalls: The largest buyer holding 391 million tokens made only a small purchase of 19,976 tokens five days ago, a stark contrast to previous active accumulation.

Trading volume continues to decline: Daily volume is only $21 million, which is severely low relative to the $1.6 billion circulating market cap, indicating decreased market participation.

Price continues to break down: Pi Network has fallen from a high of $0.2775 to $0.1960, a drop of over 29%, with no significant rebound.

The whale’s pause not only means Pi Network has lost an important demand support but may also trigger a market confidence crisis. Other holders might interpret this as a bearish signal, accelerating sell-offs. Without new demand catalysts, Pi Network’s price could continue to find a bottom.

Triple Technical Bearish Signals Point to $0.15

(Source: Trading View)

The 8-hour chart shows that Pi Network’s price has experienced a sharp reversal over the past few weeks. It has broken below the key support at $0.2030 and the double top neckline at $0.2820. The double top pattern is one of the most common bearish reversal patterns in technical analysis, and its confirmation indicates that Pi Network’s medium-term trend has shifted from bullish to bearish.

Pi Network’s price has fallen below the dynamic resistance of the 50-week EMA. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to an oversold level of 23, while the MACD remains below the zero line. The synchronized bearish signals from these three technical indicators provide a clear directional guide for Pi Network’s price forecast.

Although RSI at 23 indicates Pi Network is in oversold territory, which could suggest a technical rebound, in a strong downtrend, oversold conditions can persist for a long time. MACD below zero and with expanding histogram bars show that bearish momentum is still strengthening. Without significant positive catalysts, technical rebounds are limited.

Therefore, the most likely forecast for Pi Network is bearish, with the next key support at $0.1530, the October low, which is 20% below the current level of $0.1960. If Pi Network breaks below this level, it could further decline toward the psychological level of $0.100. Conversely, if Pi Network’s price breaks above the important resistance at $0.2200, the bearish outlook would be invalidated.