CNBC introduces Kalshi prediction market! 29-year-old founder becomes youngest billionaire

CNBC has reached a partnership with prediction market operator Kalshi. Beginning in 2026, Kalshi’s event probability data will be integrated into CNBC programming with a dedicated ticker displaying real-time prediction trends. In November, Kalshi raised $1 billion at a valuation of $11 billion, making its CEO Luana Lopes Lara the world’s youngest self-made female billionaire.

Prediction Markets: From Underground Betting to Mainstream Media

(Source: CNBC)

Prediction markets are undergoing a historic transformation from fringe tools to mainstream sources of financial information. CNBC President KC Sullivan stated that prediction markets are becoming an important tool for understanding major events, calling Kalshi’s data a “powerful supplement” to the network’s reporting. This statement marks a shift in mainstream financial media’s attitude toward prediction markets—from skepticism to embrace.

Traditional financial reporting mainly relies on historical data, expert opinions, and economic models to analyze market trends. However, these methods are retrospective or assumption-based and cannot instantly reflect the collective expectations of market participants. Kalshi’s prediction market offers an entirely new dimension of information: aggregating the expectations of thousands of participants staking real money into a single probability number. This probability is not a subjective expert opinion, but the real-time outcome of market dynamics.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour described this integration as the “next phase of financial reporting,” moving from recording the current state to providing real-time forecasts of future scenarios. This narrative captures the core value of prediction markets: forward-looking insight. When CNBC reports that “the Fed may cut interest rates,” the traditional approach is to cite analysts’ views or historical data. Now, the screen can directly display “Kalshi market shows a 78% probability of a rate cut in December,” a figure that reflects the collective judgment and monetary bets of all market participants.

Just a few days ago, Kalshi also announced an independent data integration partnership with CNN, bringing its prediction market into television analysis and news reporting. The dual-media strategy with CNN and CNBC shows that Kalshi is actively pushing prediction markets into the mainstream. Opting to partner first with two major mainstream media outlets, rather than starting with smaller finance media, highlights Kalshi’s ambition and resource strength.

Four Key Use Cases for CNBC’s Integration of Kalshi Prediction Markets

Political Election Coverage: Real-time display of each candidate’s winning probability and forecasts for key swing states

Economic Data Forecasts: Advance display of market expectations for GDP, employment reports, and other economic data

Corporate Earnings Forecasts: Aggregated market predictions for major company earnings performance

Geopolitical Events: Tracking market probability assessments of trade agreements, military conflicts, and other events

This integration will fundamentally change how viewers consume financial news. In the past, viewers passively received expert analysis; in the future, they will instantly see “the probability the market assigns to an event,” then decide for themselves whether to agree with this collective expectation.

The Explosive Growth Story Behind the $11 Billion Valuation

Founded in 2018, Kalshi operates one of the largest regulated prediction market platforms in the US, allowing users to trade outcomes related to elections, sports, economic data releases, and other real-world events. This business model was previously seen as bordering on gambling, but Kalshi transformed it into a legitimate financial tool by obtaining regulatory approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

According to Forbes, Kalshi raised $1 billion in November at an $11 billion valuation. Both the size and valuation of this round are extraordinary. A single $1 billion funding round puts Kalshi among the world’s largest fundraises in 2025, and the $11 billion valuation surpasses many established fintech companies. This explosive growth mainly occurred between 2024 and 2025, closely linked to the surge in prediction market activity during the US election year.

This has made its two 29-year-old co-founders billionaires, with CEO Luana Lopes Lara becoming the world’s youngest self-made female billionaire. Lara’s story is highly inspirational—she came up with Kalshi’s business model with co-founder Tarek Mansour while studying computer science at MIT. In just seven years, they turned a college dorm room idea into a company valued at over $10 billion.

Kalshi’s success is due to precise market positioning and regulatory strategy. Unlike offshore prediction market platforms, Kalshi chose to operate within the US regulatory framework from the start. Although this increased compliance costs and operating restrictions, it also earned the trust of mainstream institutions. CNBC and CNN’s willingness to partner with Kalshi is largely due to its regulated status, which eliminates legal risk concerns.

Kalshi will also launch a CNBC-branded page on its platform showcasing the network’s selected markets. This two-way integration demonstrates the depth of the partnership: not only will CNBC use Kalshi’s data, but Kalshi will leverage CNBC’s brand influence to attract more users. When CNBC viewers see prediction probability data during programming, they’ll naturally be curious and visit the Kalshi platform, creating a user acquisition effect.

Four Key Drivers Behind Kalshi’s $11 Billion Valuation

Regulatory Advantage: CFTC-approved legal status eliminates legal risk

Mainstream Media Endorsement: Partnerships with CNBC and CNN enhance brand credibility

Election Year Tailwind: The 2024 US election drives explosive prediction market trading volumes

Technical Barriers: Building a regulated prediction market platform requires high technical and compliance expertise

However, the $11 billion valuation has also raised questions. Prediction market trading volumes are highly dependent on major events—election-year activity may be several times higher than usual. If trading volume drops after the 2026 midterms, it remains to be seen whether Kalshi can maintain this valuation. This is why Kalshi is aggressively partnering with media, seeking to expand prediction markets from “election tools” to “everyday financial information sources.”

Polymarket’s Blockchain Challenge and the $10 Billion Valuation Race

Kalshi is a regulated US prediction market, but it isn’t the only platform attracting attention. Blockchain-based Polymarket, built on Polygon, is also rapidly expanding its influence through a series of recent partnerships and regulatory approvals. Polymarket’s valuation reached $10 billion in October, very close to Kalshi’s $11 billion, putting the two in direct competition for dominance of the prediction market sector.

In October, sports betting operator DraftKings began using Polymarket as the clearinghouse for its new prediction market product. Polymarket also partnered with PrizePicks in November, enabling users to make predictions on sports, entertainment, and other real-world events in addition to its fantasy sports offerings. Furthermore, Polymarket signed a multi-year deal with TKO Group Holdings to become the official prediction market partner for UFC and Zuffa Boxing.

The core differences between Polymarket and Kalshi are technical architecture and regulatory approach. Polymarket is built on the Polygon blockchain, with transparent and tamper-proof trading records, allowing users to participate with cryptocurrency. This decentralized structure attracts crypto-native users but also presents regulatory challenges in the US. Polymarket plans to launch a token after recently receiving approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate an intermediary trading platform.

At the time of writing, Polymarket users believe the platform has a 99% chance of launching in the US in 2025. This high probability reflects the market’s confidence in Polymarket’s ability to secure regulatory approval. If Polymarket does succeed in operating compliantly in the US and launches a token, it will directly compete with Kalshi: one is a regulated centralized platform, the other a compliant decentralized protocol.

Three Major Differences: Kalshi vs. Polymarket

Technical Architecture: Kalshi’s centralized system vs. Polymarket’s decentralized blockchain

Regulatory Path: Kalshi already CFTC-approved vs. Polymarket pending approval

User Base: Kalshi attracts traditional finance users vs. Polymarket attracts crypto-native users

Competition between the two platforms may ultimately drive the growth of the entire prediction market industry. Kalshi is educating the public through mainstream media partnerships, while Polymarket draws innovators through blockchain technology—jointly expanding the user base and use cases for prediction markets. This healthy competition is positive for the entire industry.

Regulatory Environment and the Future Outlook for Prediction Markets

Connecticut has ordered Robinhood, Crypto.com, and Kalshi to stop prediction market services, highlighting ongoing uncertainty in state-level regulation. Although Kalshi has federal CFTC approval, some state governments still classify prediction markets as gambling and ban or restrict operations. This inconsistency between federal and state regulation remains a persistent challenge for prediction market platforms.

With endorsements from mainstream media such as CNBC and CNN, the legitimacy and social acceptance of prediction markets will rise sharply. As viewers get accustomed to seeing probability data in financial news, these tools will shift from being “novel” to “standard.” In the coming years, prediction markets could become a major source of financial information alongside stock and bond markets.

The media integrations beginning in 2026 will be a watershed moment for the prediction market industry. If successful and well received by viewers, more media and financial institutions may follow suit, creating a network effect. If unsuccessful or controversial, the mainstream adoption of the entire industry may be delayed.