MicroStrategy invests $800 million, Harvard increases its position by 200%: is the Whale buying the dip or is it a bull trap prelude?

Original Title: MicroStrategy and Harvard University, two major institutions, increase the position against the trend. Is it bottom accumulation or a chase the price trap?

Original author: Blockchain Knight

Source:

Reprinted: Daisy, Mars Finance

MicroStrategy and Harvard University, two major institutions, are increasing their positions against the trend. Is this bottom accumulation or a chase the price trap?

MicroStrategy purchased 8,178 bitcoins for $835.6 million, locking in an average price of $102,171. Although the current price has fallen below $90,000, resulting in an unrealized loss on this batch, the company’s overall average holding cost is approximately $74,433, still in a profitable state, with an estimated 40% of its holdings trading below cost.

Harvard Management Company disclosed in its 13F filing on September 30 that it holds 6.8 million shares of BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), valued at $442.9 million, an increase of 200% from the previous quarter, making it the highest valued position in its U.S.-listed stocks. This institution, which manages $50 billion in assets, increased the position during the downturn, highlighting its long-term optimism towards digital assets.

Two major institutions increase the position just as the market undergoes a deep adjustment: financing rates have fallen into negative territory, open contracts have decreased, and short-term holders (wallets that acquired coins within 155 days) are experiencing “on-chain surrender”, while retail investors are concentrated on selling due to leveraged liquidations and realized losses.

The monthly market value of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF shrank by $2.57 billion, marking the largest decline since its launch, with capital outflows concentrated during U.S. trading hours, further putting pressure on prices. This pattern of retail selling and institutional buying constitutes a typical characteristic of capital shifting from weak investors to strong institutions.

On-chain data shows that whale wallets holding over 1,000 bitcoins have been continuously increasing their positions while smaller wallets are exiting, consistent with the early capital redistribution pattern seen during historical pullbacks.

However, it should be noted that wallet tagging relies on blockchain evidence and exchange labels, and the lack of KYC identity verification results in certain limitations in position data.

CryptoQuant data shows that the derivatives market exhibits characteristics of deleveraging, with a decrease in open interest and a shift to negative funding, more due to long positions being liquidated rather than whales actively withdrawing.

However, the scale of institutional holdings is difficult to offset the pressure of ETF capital outflow. Although the increase the position by MicroStrategy and Harvard is considerable, it cannot hedge the $2.57 billion ETF redemption, and it is difficult to distinguish between short-term accumulation and a bull market trap in terms of form.

If ETF capital outflows continue until the end of the year, or if macroeconomic risks escalate, even if sovereign countries, enterprises, and other institutions increase their holdings, the liquidation price of Bitcoin may still further decline.

MicroStrategy can long-term dilute costs through financing strategies, while Harvard's investment cycle lasts up to ten years, and quarterly drawdowns have limited impact on it; however, retail and leveraged traders lack such buffers.

The final nature of this capital redistribution has yet to be concluded: if subsequent ETF outflows stabilize and institutional spot demand continues to follow, it may indicate that the bottom is near; if capital outflows escalate alongside macro pressures, the current increase in position may only be a temporary respite.

Bitcoin has fallen below $90,000, filtering out long-term investors who can withstand volatility and short-term speculators who are sensitive to fluctuations, with the final answer to be revealed in the capital flows over the next month.