U.S. Senate passes restart bill, Bitcoin targets a new high of $130,000?

The U.S. Senate on November 10th evening passed a funding bill to end the government shutdown with a vote of 60 to 40, bringing an end to the longest shutdown in history lasting 40 days. The bill will be sent to the House of Representatives for a vote on November 12th, with President Trump expressing support and expecting to sign it quickly. Following the announcement, Bitcoin surged by 6.7% to $106,000, then took profits and retraced to $105,333.

Analyst Farzam Ehsani believes that if Bitcoin can hold above $110,000, a new upward cycle could begin, targeting $130,000. The prediction market Polymarket shows a 96% probability of government reopening, but market sustainability will depend on Thursday’s CPI data.

Legislative Breakthrough and Immediate Market Reaction

The swift Senate vote (60 in favor, 40 against) reflects bipartisan willingness to end the political deadlock, with the 40-day government shutdown setting a U.S. record. According to procedures, the House will vote on November 12th, and upon approval, the bill will be sent to the President for signing. Trump publicly supported the agreement on Monday afternoon, calling it “very good,” and expects the legislative process to proceed rapidly. This political certainty removed a major market uncertainty, prompting Bitcoin to soar 6.7% within an hour of the news, reaching a high of $106,000.

However, the rally was short-lived, with prices quickly falling back to the $105,000 range, indicating investors took quick profits after the uncertainty was lifted. This “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern is common in crypto markets, especially amid Bitcoin’s 11.85% decline over the past 90 days. Ethereum also showed a similar pattern, dropping from a high of $3,636 to $3,550; XRP performed relatively well, rising over 2%. Overall, the crypto market cap recovered to $3.6 trillion, a 5% rebound from early November lows.

Historical Comparisons and Current Cycle Differences

While many discuss the historical precedent of Bitcoin rising 290% after the 2019 government reopening, simple comparisons overlook key differences. In 2019, Bitcoin was at a bear market bottom of $3,500, dominated by retail sentiment, with no institutional participation or spot ETFs. Currently, Bitcoin is trading near its all-time high of $105,000, with over $50 billion in ETF assets, a mature derivatives market, and institutional involvement. These structural changes suggest limited room for violent rallies.

More importantly, macroeconomic conditions differ: in 2019, the Fed shifted from rate hikes to easing, providing strong monetary support; by late 2025, the Fed’s room to cut rates is limited by 3.2% inflation. The $2,000 “tariff rebate checks” proposed by Trump could replicate pandemic stimulus effects, but scale and timing remain uncertain. Another key difference is the cycle position—2019 was just a year before the halving, whereas the next halving is not until 2028, which will influence market psychology and miner behavior.

Impact of Government Reopening on Key Indicators

Legislative Process

• Senate Vote: 60-40 approval
• House Vote Date: November 12th
• Presidential Attitude: Supportive and expected to sign
• Duration of Shutdown: 40 days (longest in history)

Market Response

• Bitcoin peak increase: 6.7% (to $106,000)
• Current price: $105,333
• ETF fund inflow: $1.2 million net inflow in a single day
• Prediction market probability: 96% (Polymarket)

Short-term Catalysts and Risk Balance Sheet

The direct impact of government reopening is the resumption of economic data releases and regulatory approvals. Thursday’s CPI report will be the next market focus; if inflation shows further slowdown, it could reinforce expectations of Fed rate cuts in December (current probability 63%). From a technical perspective, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $110,000 psychological level to confirm a new upward trend, which also aligns with the Fibonacci retracement of October’s high. A successful breakout could target $118,000 and $130,000.

Risks include potential delays in House approval, especially if some Republican members oppose details of the deal. Broader concerns are that the reopening removes uncertainty but does not inject new liquidity, meaning gains require actual capital inflows. After a large outflow in October, Bitcoin ETF holdings have just turned positive, but sustainability remains uncertain. Additionally, traditional risk assets like the Nasdaq (up 5.8%) and Palantir (up 8.8%) are rebounding simultaneously, which could divert some funds.

Sector Rotation and Altcoin Opportunities

Historical data shows that within 30 days after government shutdowns end, small and mid-cap cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin by 12-18%. This rotation effect may recur in this cycle, especially for altcoins with clear fundamentals. Ethereum, if it can hold above $3,600, may test resistance at $4,000; Solana has attracted attention due to 10 consecutive days of spot ETF fund inflows. Broader altcoin indices (excluding Bitcoin’s top 50 tokens) have rebounded 8% from lows, indicating a gradual return of risk appetite.

It’s worth noting that regulatory reopening could accelerate previously stalled approvals, including new futures ETFs, custody licenses, and exchange registrations. This is particularly positive for compliant projects like Polygon and Avalanche. Trading strategies include increasing altcoin exposure after Bitcoin breaks above $110,000, focusing on Layer 2 and RWA sectors. However, strict stop-losses are recommended, as altcoins tend to be 2-3 times more volatile than Bitcoin.

Conclusion

The end of the government shutdown provides short-term bullishness for the crypto market, but sustained gains require stronger macro fundamentals and capital inflows. Investors should watch the critical technical level of $110,000 and Thursday’s CPI data, as these factors will determine the strength of the rebound. In a new cycle led by institutions, market behavior may become more rational, but this does not mean opportunities are lacking—rather, the sources of opportunity are shifting from leverage-driven to fundamentals-driven.